[underthebus]

> Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK.

I never understood this. Why would HK gain 'independence'? Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK? (protect from what?)

HK has been used to build a narrative that is rather strange... Frankly people in HK calling for independence are a bit like, say, the Texas Nationalist Movement or calling for Seattle independence. It's a fringe movement at best.

[simonh]

I don't think most HKers, even protesters, expect independence. They're just trying to keep the freedoms they already have. The protests aren't campaigning for new rights or new freedoms, but to prevent new laws taking existing rights away.

I think a lot of HKers are coming to realise that under the current political system their rights are always going to be under threat, and eventually will be eroded completely. The only way to prevent that is true democracy. So it's not that true democracy is the motivation for this.

[riffraff]

> Why would HK gain 'independence?

because if they don't they will be slowly assimilated into a non-democratic PRC. I am not calling for independence, I'm saying it would be nice if they had it rather than add 7m people to a regime.

> Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK?

they wouldn't, that's the point.

If HK were to declare independence, in other ages there might have been foreign powers propping them up _for their own interests_. I am not advocating this, I'm just pointing out this seems unlikely in the current world.

As for the Seattle independence: well, HK was independent for a while, and they hare already a SAR, the simile seems incorrect, but sure, it's not trivial to secede.

[mytailorisrich]

People fail to understand or accept that HK is in China. It is a rather strange state of affairs, which I think is due to ignorance and, frankly, anti-Chinese narratives.

What you are suggesting is exactly the same as discussing Seattle independence mentioned by GP, and should be regarded as equally extravagant.

> HK was independent for a while

HK was never, ever been independent.

[benj111]

The population of Hong Kong is apparently 7+ million, and 2 million went on one of the marches. Doesn't seem 'fringe' to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471

[underthebus]

Trying to claim that these 2 million people campaign for HK independence is not honest.

[skosch]

Well of course – almost nobody is really campaigning for independence. HK is very much dependent on the mainland, and that's understood. The demands are much more narrow: for the extradition bill to be scrapped, for Carrie Lam to step down, for elections to be free and fair, etc.

[benj111]

Well until they are allowed a free and fair vote on that, saying its 'fringe at best' isnt honest either. I would contend that in the absence of such a vote, these numbers are enough to show you're wrong.

Also the news we are discussing demonstrates why the people of Hong Kong need protecting. So questioning that isnt honest either.

[sho]

What do you mean "apparently", like it's some kind of questionable assertion? It's 7+ million, period.

It's "fringe" because it's part of China, and even all 7+ million people in HK comprise less than 1% of China. I know many Chinese people, and they do not give a shit about HK's ideas about its own independence. They consider it China, full stop. The example about Seattle "declaring independence" the GP gave is actually quite apt. There is only one way this will play out.

I happen to vehemently disagree with what the PRC is doing, for what it's worth. But reality is reality and this script is going to unfold exactly as everyone thinks it will. In 10 years time I doubt there'll even be a border. Who's going to stop them? Boris Johnson?

[benj111]

"What do you mean "apparently""

Nothing beyond being not 100% sure whether that referred to the entirety of the territory or just the city.

I don't think its fair to count the entirety of China when deciding whether its fringe. Irish unification is 'fringe' in the UK, doesn't stop it being important to a sizable proportion of Northern Ireland. South Sudan independence was probably 'fringe' within greater Sudan, that doesn't mean it wasn't important the South Sudanese.

And I never said any independence bid would be successful, that doesn't stop people wanting it. So yes I agree with your last paragraph.