[codeulike]

Agreed, Musk/Tesla/SpaceX set very ambitious targets and then scramble like mad to meet them or almost meet them. This means they're always pushing the limit, and hence you get an endless parade of 'Tesla are going to go bankrupt' stories. In a way they are kind of right, Musk is pushing Tesla so hard that they teeter on the edge of disaster quite often. I wouldn't quite say bankruptcy, but they teeter on the edge of a serious loss of confidence quite often. I think this is kinda deliberate, a tactic of shoot for the stars or just dont bother. I wouldn't invest, but its great to watch whats being acheived from the sidelines.

I think people have forgotten what innovation looks like. Innovation, from the outside, looks like a huge gamble, and thats because it is. Tesla is a series of huge gambles, and the people pointing out 'hey what Tesla are doing could go terribly wrong' have a point. But they are also missing the point.

Thankfully I think Tesla have enough cars on the road now that if they do strike disaster, there will be enough momentum to have some sort of Tesla remnant to keep the fleet running. But the progress would stop.

[hef19898]

Nothing wrong with innovation. But innovation on one front, in Tesla's case EVs, doesn't mean you have to innovate on other fronts like manufacturing and production. And the last thing is what might be killing Tesla at the moment.

When "we always did it that way" is a big corp disease, "we are doing it differently because we innovate" is just the start-up version of it. Tesla had, and still has, a great opportunity to disrupt the automotive industry. But not if they execute a lot worse then incumbents.

[codeulike]

There is an interview somewhere where Musk admits that their 100% automation plan was a bad idea. And the interviewer says 'well everyone told you it was a bad idea'. And Musk says (something like) 'everyone tells us everything we do is a bad idea'.

edit: interview is here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-13/-the-last...

100% automation was a gamble that didn't pay off. They scrabbled around a bit, and got to more-or-less where they needed to be via a different route.

[Aromasin]

From watching some videos on the workings of their factory, it still seems like they've automated significantly more than their competitors. They reached for the stars and fell short, but that short is still ground-breaking.

[gamblor956]

If you think Tesla's factory is amazing, you need to check out Toyota's factories. It's like the difference between a Fisher Price playset and Disneyland.

Tesla talks big about automating...but Toyota actually did it, without fanfare, and managed to do so in a manner consistent with the kanban manufacturing philosophy that has defined their productivity and quality achievements of the past several decades

[_ea1k]

Toyota used to produce ~440k cars out of that plant. Tesla does ~360k. I'm not sure that "fisher price playset" vs disneyland is the analogy that I'd use for that difference.

[gamblor956]

NUMMI was Toyota's oldest and least productive US factory, and the cars were produced on contract for GM, which sold them under a GM brand. This is one of the reasons Toyota closed the plant and sold it to Tesla.

NUMMI is also not the factory that Toyota shows off in its videos demonstrating the awesomeness of its manufacturing processes.

[c0vfefe]

There's more to plant quality than output alone. I'd expect a "disneyland" factory to have other metrics, like low rework, safety, worker satisfaction/retention, responsible procurement & disposal of raw materials, etc.

[m463]

Are there decent videos of both factories to compare them? It might be interesting to see the state of the practice for an established player like Toyota.

I also remember way back when steve jobs tried to automate the production of NeXT cubes and broke his company doing it. I think a lot of folks do this sort of "follow one philosophy" into ruin. They want to be amazing and lose sight of what's doable/affordable/realistic.

[golfer]

Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are child's play in the automotive industry. Nothing Tesla has done here is revolutionary. Their quality control is abysmal compared to other major OEMs. They make the Model 3 in a tent. There are regular garbage fires at their Fremont plant.

https://boingboing.net/2018/08/24/fire-breaks-out-at-tesla-f...

And there was another one in February this year.

[codeulike]

The 'tent' was an improvisation when they realised their automation plan wasn't going to work. It was 1 of 3 lines I think, a way to expand capacity quickly. You could scoff at the 'tent', or you could think about what it takes to come up with a rapidly implemented and physically massive plan B involving hundreds of people and huge amounts of hardware when there's a huge amount at stake.

edit: Here's some pics of the tent, and description of the large scale scrambling it took https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/the-futur...

[hef19898]

Or you could ask yourself what happened that you needed a tent in the first place. Again, incumbents or any of their final assembly contractors know exactly how to launch and scale assembly lines for new plants and car models. Why Tesla choose to deviate from all industry best practices in that case still puzzles me.

[Aromasin]

Manufacturing capabilities =/= % of process automated. I'm not saying they're effective at production output, or quality control, or a number of other things. I'm just saying that as far as I can tell as an interested outsider looking in, their automation processes are impressive compared to their competitors.

[gamblor956]

Tesla admits that large portions of their cars--even the Model 3--are essentially built or assembled by hand.

Meanwhile, Ford and Toyota have videos of almost an entire car being constructed by robots on their production factory lines (their are parts where humans assist the robots but otherwise most of the work is actually done by the robots). There'a a famous Ford video from a decade or two ago showing one of their (now-older/discontinued) model sedans from being built and finished--entirely by robots-from frame to final painting touchups. And if you don't believe the videos, you can tour their factories and actually see their factory lines in action, live.

[hef19898]

Unfortunately it is not looks that count but results. And there Tesla is far behind. Which kind proves the incumbents right on the way they are manufacturing cars. And that is my whole point. You can have a killer product, if you are unable to produce and distribute it that doesn't mean shit.

Ideas are a dime dozen, right? Execution is what matters is the start-up advice, right? And on that front Tesla is not looking good right now.

[tomnipotent]

How are fires at a paint shop indicative of abysmal quality control?

[hef19898]

It is a sign for abysmal factory operations. And the first time pass rate is really bad compared to other OEMs.

[hef19898]

And resulted in production hell, didn't it?

[Aromasin]

This is only going off of what I've read from private interviews with Tesla employees (I'm sure there are some lurking on HN that can give a better idea), but it seems the production hell came mostly from the constant product updates that were rolling through. A connector on a wire harness becomes obsolete, and all of a sudden your camera that picks out that connector from a bucket needs updating, the arm that grips it needs changing, the milling machine that machines the hole for the connector needs changing etc. One up-issue knocks on to the entire production process. This isn't an issue with humans. You tell them the new part they need to use and that's it.

[hi5eyes]

building cars in a tent is called disruption

[hef19898]

That's called dilettantism at best combined with desperation. How would call manufacturing chips in a warehouse instead of a chip fab?

[natch]

Yep and scrappy, a very good attribute for a startup or even for a maturing silicon valley company.

[c0vfefe]

Often that's what it takes to achieve significant progress, even as an individual. Shoot for the stars and you'll likely see modest progress, but if you aim for mediocrity, you might not even attain that.

[grey-area]

100% automation was a gamble that didn't pay off

For now.

When they have a solid product, and a lot more money in the bank, I'd expect them to be at the forefront of automation, and then it will pay dividends, they just tried to do it too soon.

[hef19898]

There are plenty of car companies out there with solid products and very deep pockets. Nobody is going this direction. All it will do is increasing the production issues ten fold if Tesla is facing the first facelift or model change.

[fooker]

Nobody went in the direction of seamless internet payments before PayPal, despite banking existing for centuries.

Nobody went in the direction of landing boosters, despite rocketry existing for decades.

'Nobody is doing it', is more often than not, an argument for 'it' instead of against.

[stcredzero]

It's not enough to have, 'Nobody is doing it.' If you want the full Musk analysis, you also have to do a 1st principles analysis of the true cost. Then you have to identify the factors holding things up across the entire industry. Is it that government regulation and meddling is distorting the pricing and scaring away competitors? Is it an entrenched industry with no motivation to innovate?

Often nobody's doing it, because "it" is truly stupid. What Musk is doing, is applying a formula for discovering when the majority are mistaken.

http://paulgraham.com/say.html

[dingaling]

> Nobody went in the direction of landing boosters

Of course they did, but they only wanted to do it on DoD money. When that wasn't further forthcoming they pivoted to other projects that were funded.

Landing rocket as a stalled idea wasn't due to lack of technical foresight, it wad a result of big companies lacking financial foresight. I give credit to Space X for making that business leap, even though landing their boosters was actually an ad hoc response to their initial failure to secure cheap Russian engines.

[hef19898]

True at first glance. But the better allogy would be a better way to process cheques in the case of PayPal. And in the case of producing cars ignoring the Toyota Production System, ignoring decades of experience in high volume car manufacturing is at best incredibly arrogant.

[grey-area]

Remember Nokia?

They had decades of experience in the industry and the software guys (Apple and Google) drove them to bankruptcy.

Also look at SpaceX - he’s not a complete novice at complex manufacturing, and knows how to assemble and motivate a good team, and is used to competing against even more entrenched incumbents.

I’ll be interested to see how this works out but I think Musk was just too early and trying to do too much at once; he’s not wrong that automation is the future.

[hef19898]

And Nokia lost because the new products were better. Not because Apple or Google were better at manufacturing. After all Apple went to Samsung for screens and sub contracted manufacturing to Foxconn. Google designed and had the likes of LG build their Pixels and Nexus phones. And that is the difference I'm arguing here, not the product.

Also, building mostly single use rockets, reused boosters are pretty new even for SpaceX, in comparatively small number is totally different from building and running factories that spit out hundreds of thousands of cars. But I can understand why Elon might have thought he knew better. But drawing lessons from an industry like aerospace and rockets which had only a hand full of defacto state subsidized players to one as competitive as automotive was, it seems, a bad idea.

Yes, I fully agree that Elon wanted too early and too fast. And having the timing wrong still means you're wrong. And in that case this mistake and the underlying culture and way of thinking can very much doom the whole company. And that would really be a shame, wouldn't it?

[craydandy]

In fact others seem to go just the opposite direction. For example Mercedes is reducing the amount of automation as it makes the change too slow [1].

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/26/mercedes-...

[TimTheTinker]

> When "we always did it that way" is a big corp disease, "we are doing it differently because we innovate" is just the start-up version of it.

That's a very insightful and prescient statement -- thanks for that. Certainly food for thought.

[hef19898]

Hard learned insight, at least for myself :-)