[grey-area]

Remember Nokia?

They had decades of experience in the industry and the software guys (Apple and Google) drove them to bankruptcy.

Also look at SpaceX - he’s not a complete novice at complex manufacturing, and knows how to assemble and motivate a good team, and is used to competing against even more entrenched incumbents.

I’ll be interested to see how this works out but I think Musk was just too early and trying to do too much at once; he’s not wrong that automation is the future.

[hef19898]

And Nokia lost because the new products were better. Not because Apple or Google were better at manufacturing. After all Apple went to Samsung for screens and sub contracted manufacturing to Foxconn. Google designed and had the likes of LG build their Pixels and Nexus phones. And that is the difference I'm arguing here, not the product.

Also, building mostly single use rockets, reused boosters are pretty new even for SpaceX, in comparatively small number is totally different from building and running factories that spit out hundreds of thousands of cars. But I can understand why Elon might have thought he knew better. But drawing lessons from an industry like aerospace and rockets which had only a hand full of defacto state subsidized players to one as competitive as automotive was, it seems, a bad idea.

Yes, I fully agree that Elon wanted too early and too fast. And having the timing wrong still means you're wrong. And in that case this mistake and the underlying culture and way of thinking can very much doom the whole company. And that would really be a shame, wouldn't it?

[grey-area]

The Model 3 is better, it just needs to get cheaper - it’s already the best-selling EV in many markets.