[lisper]

I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.

[nogbit]

Creating/building etc improves your chances of success because you are actually making more connections (intentional or otherwise) which increase the chance of luck. That is not wrong, just the luck actually happening is well, still luck (does not happen to all).

[skookumchuck]

Studying improves your odds of success. Video games improve your odds of failure. It's your choice.

[raleec]

My point is: Your experiences taught and reinforced that lesson. It's turtles all the way down.

[skookumchuck]

You are not a slave to your experiences.

[frgtpsswrdlame]

Your experiences is all there is, of course you're a slave to them.

E: Actually I should say there are influences outside of experiences, genetics for example. But you're a slave to those as well.

[raleec]

And next turtle: your genetics are the encoded experiences of your ancestors...

[ghthor]

I learned the communication skills to be a good remote employee from mmorpgs. I learned about systems design from playing video games and discussing how mechanics interact to encourage/discourage different behaviors. I hate this trope that playing video games is a negative.

[lisper]

That's true, but being in the right place at the right time improves your odds of success more.

[skookumchuck]

So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.

[lisper]

That is easier said than done. The right place is usually only evident in retrospect. A lot of people move to Silicon Valley, work their freakin' asses off for decades, and still don't succeed.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's hopeless and that you should just give up and play video games. But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Luck is necessary, and can be sufficient for success. Effort and skill are neither. (And, BTW, this is a consequence of deep problems in the system we have set up, and we ought to try to change those. But you can't solve a problem without first acknowledging that the problem exists.)

[skookumchuck]

> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort.

Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success.

> A lot

Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.

[marnett]

> the proof is in the housing prices.

I feel like this statement gives more backing to the arguments on luck. Those lucky enough to by an apartment in the peninsula in the 80s, who are gaining the most off of soaring housing costs, are now reaping remarkable 'success' with no proof they predicted, with skill, foresight, or intellect, the housing market of 2018.

[lisper]

> Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%.

That's not true. There are plenty of trust fund kids shopping at Prada.

> Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices

That is true, of course, but better relative to what? There is enormous variance in the baselines, starting with, for example, whether you live in the U.S. or, say, Bangladesh.

[kbutler]

Yes, luck is a factor.

If you roll once or twice, then say "It's just luck", you're completely right.

But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll - especially if you can tweak the roll just a bit. Then you say, "Luck is important, but hard work helps, too."

[lisper]

> But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll

No, this is a pernicious myth. A lot of people roll again and again and never get a good roll. Rolling the economic dice takes a lot of time. You can reasonably expect to get maybe 10 rolls before you age out. Even if the odds of success on each roll were 1 in 10 you'd still have a LOT of people (about a third actually) never getting a good roll. And the actual odds are considerably worse than 1 in 10.

[skookumchuck]

It's not at all a myth. Donate your video game console to Goodwill, get yourself educated, get out and try, and your odds increase enormously.

[frgtpsswrdlame]

You're kind of ignoring all the reasons someone might be unlucky enough to be stuck in a certain place.

[skookumchuck]

There's opportunity on the internet, too.

[adventured]

Right place at the right time is a stacker, like so many (most?) things.

Being in the right place at the right time, is probably worthless without the necessary skill/s (where studying/learning/education can come in) and attributes to take advantage of the opportunity in question.

Maybe you meet an elite investor in an elevator and have an opportunity to pitch them. You lack the technical skill or experience to bring it home. You perhaps never really had a shot at that right place + right time moment (so was it ever an opportunity at all? Is it a sliding scale? debate loop).

Some of what we can be is defined at birth. If your brain wiring is very heavily tilted toward being an artist, you likely will not be the next John Carmack. Adrian Carmack could not do what John could no matter how hard he tried (I know they're not related, I couldn't resist). I know there are exceptions to these rules, they're exceptions however.

[kazinator]

Video games could give you a reaction time and coordination that could turn out to be life-saving.