[skookumchuck]

> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort.

Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success.

> A lot

Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.

[marnett]

> the proof is in the housing prices.

I feel like this statement gives more backing to the arguments on luck. Those lucky enough to by an apartment in the peninsula in the 80s, who are gaining the most off of soaring housing costs, are now reaping remarkable 'success' with no proof they predicted, with skill, foresight, or intellect, the housing market of 2018.

[skookumchuck]

Those housing prices wouldn't be going up if there weren't an awful lot of successful people in SV.

[lisper]

> Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%.

That's not true. There are plenty of trust fund kids shopping at Prada.

> Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices

That is true, of course, but better relative to what? There is enormous variance in the baselines, starting with, for example, whether you live in the U.S. or, say, Bangladesh.