So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.
That is easier said than done. The right place is usually only evident in retrospect. A lot of people move to Silicon Valley, work their freakin' asses off for decades, and still don't succeed.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's hopeless and that you should just give up and play video games. But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Luck is necessary, and can be sufficient for success. Effort and skill are neither. (And, BTW, this is a consequence of deep problems in the system we have set up, and we ought to try to change those. But you can't solve a problem without first acknowledging that the problem exists.)
> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort.
Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success.
> A lot
Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.
I feel like this statement gives more backing to the arguments on luck. Those lucky enough to by an apartment in the peninsula in the 80s, who are gaining the most off of soaring housing costs, are now reaping remarkable 'success' with no proof they predicted, with skill, foresight, or intellect, the housing market of 2018.
> Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%.
That's not true. There are plenty of trust fund kids shopping at Prada.
> Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices
That is true, of course, but better relative to what? There is enormous variance in the baselines, starting with, for example, whether you live in the U.S. or, say, Bangladesh.
If you roll once or twice, then say "It's just luck", you're completely right.
But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll - especially if you can tweak the roll just a bit. Then you say, "Luck is important, but hard work helps, too."
> But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll
No, this is a pernicious myth. A lot of people roll again and again and never get a good roll. Rolling the economic dice takes a lot of time. You can reasonably expect to get maybe 10 rolls before you age out. Even if the odds of success on each roll were 1 in 10 you'd still have a LOT of people (about a third actually) never getting a good roll. And the actual odds are considerably worse than 1 in 10.
> get out and try, and your odds increase enormously.
That is true, of course, but increase relative to what? There is huge variance in the baselines, starting with, for example, whether you live in the U.S. or, say, Bangladesh.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's hopeless and that you should just give up and play video games. But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Luck is necessary, and can be sufficient for success. Effort and skill are neither. (And, BTW, this is a consequence of deep problems in the system we have set up, and we ought to try to change those. But you can't solve a problem without first acknowledging that the problem exists.)