[iheartmemcache]

If we're talking 'next-gen' tech vs 'next-gen' tech, let's be a little fairer, newer cars are using the Atkinson not the Otto[1]. Throw in the fact that we're no longer tied to a camshaft for timing[2], cylinders can be shutdown at will (e.g. you're in bumper-to-bumper on the 405 or 101, your Benz-AMG or Stage 3 Mustang doesn't really need all 8 cylinders firing) and the fact that most manufacturers have at least one car with the option to reclaim that heat (i.e. even Ford Mustangs, notorious for being gas guzzling pony cars, have a turbo-hybrid configuration option) and things for the ICE look a little less bleak.

I'm all for pure-electric cars but we're still a long way from Joe the miner in Kentucky from being able to drop $1800 on a 2000 Toyota Tundra and having it be able to get him reliably from the jobsite and back. That's not even factoring in the whole capacity-decrease-with-use (and even non-use-- deterioration occurs simply by just storing cells at full capacity for long duration -- of lithium.

Even with the best, most conservative profiles on a battery-module controller for anything lithium based, good luck getting > %50 of cell capacity 5 years down the road of a daily driver [edit: 7]. Anode deterioration (at least, last I seriously researched it for projects requiring portable units for driving larger loads than an average car was ~1.5 years ago) was still a problem even in the lab.[3]

My sister abuses her 2004 Civic coupe to the point where I think she's still running a stock air filter and runs 30-35k between oil changes[4]. This was a run of the mill car she's had since god-knows-how-long and she's still getting 22mpg city [5] ~26 highway on an automatic transmission.

tl;dr -- In terms of total costs :

- capital (purchase) / delivery fee

- operational ($ of petrol for ICE per unit travelled/$ of energy from your power supplier per kw/h), insurance

- maintenance (tire wear, brakes, battery module(s) replacement(s)) over, eh, 5 years from out-of-the-showroom-into-your-garage, I'd be surprised if you saw the electric dollar-for-mile-traveled outperform it's ICE counterpart.[6] I'm far from the forefront of Li, but I do have a few friends in that field (both in academia and in industry) -- even the most optimistic don't see pure-electrics reaching a TCO parity point of an ICE for the consumer in less than 10 years.

--

[1] http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1091436_toyota-gasoline-...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJXgKY2O4po FreeValve as explained by that really enthusiastic "Engineering Explained" 24 year old automotive engineer, dumbed down to the point where even I can grok it.

[3] Rumor had it, DARPA was using some crazy proprietary stuff that managed to completely nullify dentrification, but if they've managed to accomplish that anodic behavior, there's no way it's going to be released for public usage -- rather, it'll remain hush-hush minus 50 PhD's in metallurgy, and Lockheed drones all of a sudden posting performance numbers +30% from the last revision.

[4] She's not using those long-lasting synthetics that have additives to SeaFoam (yeah, I'm using it as a verb) out carbon build-up on the cylinders and what not, in case you're wondering. Just cheapo 5w/30.

[5] That, albeit was with me driving in 'conservative' mode rather than "hmm let's see the 0-160 on this McLaren".

[6] And I'm 100% sure if you bought a 3 year old variant of an ICE vs a pure-electric, it's no contest -- https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/drive-a-nearly-new-car-fo... -- ignore the link bait title, it's just about the FMV of cars as a function of time.

[7] In addition to the response I made directly to child-poster, I'd like to concede that it is very possible he's ran 43k miles (i.e., literally at least a thousand cycles, likely closer to mid thousands) with a retained 98%. He makes a very valid point in bringing up the variance of cell capacity deterioration. I'd genuinely love to see some cal'd equipment with your standard dummy load and power analyzer log setup to see the data. (I ain't no fancy electron whiz but I can read me a chart or two.)

The take away is that overall capacity is a function of usage. I could probably get in the lab and simulate 43k miles of load in LabView discharging/recharging every 10 miles while keeping the thermal properties controlled as all heck and see 99.5 capacity retention, but these, again, aren't Joe's driving patterns.

edit 2: @maratd: See my edit 1/[7] (which I presume I was writing while you were drafting your response). I think we're largely in agreement re: usage properties being highly influential. My response to the OC (original child poster) addresses the deep-cycling cooling. As this has turned into a post with 8 endnotes, I think I've crossed the threshold of reasonable discourse.

Allow me to close with a quick remark re: BMC's on your power drill. Anything half decent will have active thermal monitoring specifically because of the reason you stated (much to the chagrin of blue-collar workers everywhere). "Ok, last weld before quittin' time..." paddle trigger actuates, worker expects wire-wheel to start spinning a to clean the slag of iron oxide off the root weld. nothing happens because the thermocouple on the motor armature triggered a lock-out "PC LOAD LETTER WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MEAN?"

[vvanders]

Not sure where your getting your 50% degradation numbers from, I have 2 years of daily use, 43k miles and only ~2% degradation.

[iheartmemcache]

(old-ish study, apologies, but was cutting edge circa 2010, but still stands re: LiFePO2 which I'm betting your '14 production car is using) -> http://ecec.mne.psu.edu/pubs/2010-zhang-jps.pdf Page 2, Column 2, Figure 1, Top chart. 300 deep-cycles @ ~92%, 600 @ 74%.

If you're the average SV guy who 'daily drives' his Tesla 20 miles from Oakland to his lofted startup where there's 220 to full-charge before you go home, you'll get 2%. Johnny in Kentucky working the coal miles doesn't have that luxury and will certainly enter into 'deep charge' consumption. (600 cycles -> ~75%, with 2nd deriv of batt life w/r/t cycle being negative, i.e., progressively decreasing losses).

Again, not in the field professionally, but these opinions are consistent with my friends who are working at the forefront (albeit, a statistically small sample space, I openly concede !)

[toomuchtodo]

Tesloop, the transport company that'll shuttle you between LA and Las Vegas via Model S, has only seen 6% degradation over 180k miles on their vehicle; this is with ignoring Tesla's advice not to charge to 100% every time at Superchargers.

Your pack longevity math is grossly inaccurate.

[vvanders]

If by daily driver you mean weekly 300mi weekly roundtrip that usually ends around 5-10% and ~30 miles a day otherwise then sure.

My numbers line up with what most Tesla owner experiences. If your friends are at the forefront of the profession then I'd be a bit worried about whoever they're working for.

[maratd]

> good luck getting > %50 of cell capacity 5 years down the road of a daily driver

The data doesn't bear this out. Users have been seeing 5%-10% degradation over the first few years, after which point it levels out.

After 10 years, I expect to have >80% of capacity still usable.

The enemy of lithium ion is high state of charge, as you said, and high temperature. Tesla gives you control over how much you charge the battery, so you can easily avoid a high state of charge.

The big deal is temperature. Your laptop, cell, power drill, etc. do not have temperature control. The battery overheats frequently and capacity suffers, until the battery is dead. Tesla has an active liquid temperature control system in the battery pack. It cools the battery when it heats up and heats it up when the pack is cold, keeping the temperature under control. This preserves capacity long-term.

[antisthenes]

> After 10 years, I expect to have >80% of capacity still usable.

It's pointless to talk about capacity at year X without accounting for range, your driving habits and miles/year.

Capacity loss is not a dependent variable of just time, but most importantly of the number of recharge cycles. This is why Nissan Leaves (especially 1st gen ones) have experienced huge capacity losses when used as daily drivers (think 30% loss @ 50,000 miles). Depending on how long it takes you to drive 50,000 miles, the time frame can be as short as 3 years.

Of course a Tesla needs fewer charges to go 50,000 miles, but that obviously comes with a huge price premium over the 'economy EV' like a Leaf or a Kia Soul or what have you.

[maratd]

> but most importantly of the number of recharge cycles.

That was the point I was alluding to. You're mistaken in thinking that this is the most important factor. It isn't. The most important factors are extreme states of charge and temperature. If you account for those and control those, you can easily go a million miles on the battery pack without any kind of major issues. The rest of the car will fall apart before the battery pack gives out or suffers major degradation.

[vvanders]

Capacity loss for leafs come from their lack of thermal management, not driving range. See the issues they have with capacity in warm climates.