[antisthenes]

> After 10 years, I expect to have >80% of capacity still usable.

It's pointless to talk about capacity at year X without accounting for range, your driving habits and miles/year.

Capacity loss is not a dependent variable of just time, but most importantly of the number of recharge cycles. This is why Nissan Leaves (especially 1st gen ones) have experienced huge capacity losses when used as daily drivers (think 30% loss @ 50,000 miles). Depending on how long it takes you to drive 50,000 miles, the time frame can be as short as 3 years.

Of course a Tesla needs fewer charges to go 50,000 miles, but that obviously comes with a huge price premium over the 'economy EV' like a Leaf or a Kia Soul or what have you.

[maratd]

> but most importantly of the number of recharge cycles.

That was the point I was alluding to. You're mistaken in thinking that this is the most important factor. It isn't. The most important factors are extreme states of charge and temperature. If you account for those and control those, you can easily go a million miles on the battery pack without any kind of major issues. The rest of the car will fall apart before the battery pack gives out or suffers major degradation.

[vvanders]

Capacity loss for leafs come from their lack of thermal management, not driving range. See the issues they have with capacity in warm climates.