Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?

[NSX2]

I've been trying to put together a startup for a bit more than a year now based on an idea I've juggled in my head for about 6 years or so. At about the same time as I had the idea, I was able to observe it's application in an area where most people who would be capable of developing the idea would never even think to look. For the longest time I've had the hardest time even getting people to understand the relevance of what I was talking about. Plus finding people to help develop it is challenging as programmers seem to be in short supply these days.

I was just about to shrug the whole last 6 years off as a huge waste of my life, but I just learned that IBM recently put together a research group specifically dedicated to this idea. But no matter how much money or manpower they have, I know enough about this area to know that they missed some windows of observation that will neve be repeated, and I can count on one hand the people (aside from myself) who have intelligently documented this phenomenon and have given it enough thought to gain some possibly practical insight into the topic. So in a way, I finally feel vindicated. As weird as the idea is, at least I'm not the only one who thinks it may have some profitable, practical application.

To throw in the towel in this uphill battle, or not? Or pick up the phone and call IBM and see if they'll give me a consulting gig? In other words, something that 99% of people I've come across have considered a completely useless area of specialty has suddenly become interesting and I feel like I have the advantage since the insights I've gained are the result of unique events that will never be replicated.

I feel vindicated, yet the last 6 years or so have been soooo frustrating trying to convince people of something that seemed so intuitive and obvious to me, but left most people I spoke to scratching their heads. And yet, I imagine that in the next few years, even more people will be looking into this area.

Anybody have any ideas? Any perspective and experience in a similar position would be appreciated. The "I told you so" factor is good ... but I've spent soo much time and personal resources on something that has progressed at a glacial pace. I guess what I'm saying is, throw in the towel and call IBM, or keep trying the startup attempt route?

[jyu]

You spent 6 years on this idea with nothing to show for it[red flag]. You say your bottlenecks are programmers, and that you couldn't convince anyone to join you [red flag]. Why did they not buy into it?

Instead of having you convince people, why not have some evidence to do the talking for you? Learn to put ideas into UI flow charts, functional specs. Show a paper prototype to customers and see if it is something they would pay for. Do whatever you can so that other programmers won't look at you like a "dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity."

As for call IBM or try the start-up route, I would at least call them to see where they are with their research.

[thomasswift]

Here's my take on the question as well as few of your responses throughout.

Stop worrying about programmers. If you have been toying with this idea for 6 years, take another one year and learn how to program. if you're cash strapped there are plenty of online tutorials and good old manuals. If have some cash outsource it to india or elance. if people are paid with money, they sometimes tend not to 'care' what they are working on, but give results.

The fact that IBM is doing research in this field means that they think that it might be worth it to work on this.

I think you need to act on it and if you spent that amount of time mulling it over, checking into things. get it done and see what people think, let the market decide. If someone doesn't get it, explain to them why they should. people thought blogs were stupid, all the other search engines didn't buy into google, now they wish they had.

I was in a similar thought process when i started my site, after i started it i kept coming across competitors i never even heard of. the fact that people are using my site and getting results was my 'vindication', after all there are a lot of other services that guarantee so much but didn't work for some people.

as far a i know ideas are worthless. pg talks about it some where. put it out there and see what happens, if IBM looks into what you are doing and blatantly copies you, sue them, but expect a long drawn-out legal battle that you won't win.

Lastly, people might have a hard time helping you out here if you don't talk about your idea. People might be interested in helping you out, by closely guarding your idea people might not help out.

[SwellJoe]

If you couldn't pull it off in six years, do you think another year or two will be enough? Do you think you can pull it together faster than IBM (and the dozen other competitors that will spring up once IBMs work becomes more widely known)? Ideas are worth practically nothing--you have no monopoly on your idea, unless it sucks, and even then, you probably aren't the only person working on it.

I ran my previous business for nearly seven years, before throwing in the towel. It was profitable for about six of those seven years, and it kept me in food and houses...but it wasn't a success, by my definition, and I won't twice make the mistake of continuing a business that I don't believe can win in its market...not just get by, but win. Perhaps you're not making that mistake, but I'd suggest you change your tactics immediately. Six years is an awful long time to have nothing to show.

[omakase]

Why don't you share your idea. This is might be a great place to find your tech co-founder?!

I don't understand why many people are so determined to keep their ideas secret a secret. First off odds are somebody has also though of the same idea. Not every great opportunity is immediately obvious in the early form of the idea. An idea alone does not make a killer startup imo -- execution is very important. Second, if only you have the expertise to make this idea work then all the more reason to share it and hope to find someone that buys into your dream.

Just my two cents worth. From my experience there is nothing more frustrating then not iterating towards your goal.

[Hexstream]

One solution is to continue trying; Another is to "sell out" to BigCo;

Yet another is to publish your idea and possibly get hero status when someone that understands the relevance of your idea and has the necessary resources/skills to make it happen does so. You'd probably feel good about those 6 years spent thinking about it and researching it not being completely in vain.

I'm a bit freaked out thinking that great ideas can die with their originator if they never publish...

[NSX2]

Or ... Or ... OOOORRR - you just gave me another idea in a way: What if I go up to BigCo and THREATEN to publish it online for free, thus rendering their money spent on research/subsequent patent-based revenue streams completely useless? Just walk up to IBM and say, "I know what you guys researching, here's what you'll discover, now pay up or I'll write a white paper and just put it on the internet ... or mail it to Microsoft or whatever!"

And since the legal departments of most major corporations use game theory in analyzing transactions, their lawyers would easily tell them it's in their favor to pay me what I ask for just to get me to agree to shut up.

That's just crazy enough to possibly work. I wish I could up vote you like 20 times for inspiring this thought.

[Hexstream]

As far as I can tell, it's probably better for your sanity to end your involvement with this project, one way or another.

[srp]

You did not start a company in 6 years. You have been giving excuses (probably valid) for most advice that people here are giving you. Don't suffer anymore. Call IBM and ask for a job, show them you know more shit about this than all of them put together. If you get hired atleast you will be working on something you really like and also get credit for that.

[playing_with]

You have a market opportunity validated by IBM, with a 6 year head start in research. Based only on what you've written, with proper support you should be able to kick ass in an important market faster than they can. What's not to like?

If what you know is as important as you say it is, then either (a) IBM should be happy to pay you a handsome sum for it, possibly without needing you to commit an endless day job, or (b) you will be able to raise money and finally get that startup off the ground, provided that you can convince investors of your personal ability to start the company. Both of these options are better than what you had on your plate before IBM joined the fray, so I am puzzled by the attitude that comes across in your writing. You sound like you're sulking, which is not only very unattractive to any would-be co-founders or investors, but also contradictory to a rational account of your situation: didn't you just "win"?

* Also, talking to IBM need not imply agreeing to what they want. Find out what they'd offer for your expertise, and what kind of commitment you'd have to make. If it sounds good, take it. If not, do it yourself. You don't lose any of your advantage until you actually spill the beans. Certainly don't use threatening language. Simply based on how you've written this posting and responded to comments, I already have a strong gut-based bias against working with you.

[rrival]

I once spent 2 years on an idea that never got off the ground. I wouldn't do that again. At 6 years you should either do it right now and stop screwing around (what was that post? Do it fucking now?) or put it to bed forever. The try and fail route is more rewarding imho.

[NSX2]

But what if on the last day of the second year, just as you were about to say, "The hell with this", you found out that people are just starting to look into it? Surely all the insight you gained over the course of your 2 years of trying is useful - question is, what to do with it? Keep plugging away, or "sell out" and go the corporate route?

One of the guys running the project works at an office on Madison Ave. I'd love to start a startup based on this, because I just know it'll be cool, yet I can't say since finding out about this recent development I haven't spent, oh, 5 hours or so since fantasizing about what it would be like to pay off all my credit cards, have health insurance, benefits, etc. and go to work on Madison avenue near Central Park every day.

And instead of arguing with people about the idea, I would be in an environment where people who understand it would appreciate the insights I have. Plus they have a pretty big budget to play with from what I understand.

Just getting paid to do what I've been doing for fun ... and appreciated for once instead of seeing the usual "What the hell are you talking about?" look on people's faces when I've tried to discuss it.

> The try and fail route is more rewarding imho.

I suppose you're right in a way. Maybe both? Maybe, "I've tried, it didn't work out because of timing, but now I can apply my insights and sell out in style!" (?)

[mixmax]

I've had a similar experience that you may learn from.

In 96 I did my first startup, based on an algorithmic way of sorting links. Basically somewhere in between Google and del.icio.us. Me and my partner thought that Altavista, which at the time was the best search engine out there, fell short. We secured seed founding in the amount of ca. $100.000 and developed a working prototype of the technology. After this we needed venture capital to create and promote the product. This proved impossible to get. We talked to every VC out there, but the result was the same: "nobody needs another search engine", and "you can't make money on that" I was, however, convinced that the idea was sound so I carried on for almost 1½ years after funding ran out. In the end I had to give up.

It seems to me like you are in a similar situation.

Based on my experience what I think you should do is assess the situation seriously, and have someone you trust help you do this. When you're in the middle of it it is really hard to see the pitfalls and shortcomings of an idea. Look at what alternatives you have, try and write them down with pros and cons of each. Then take a decision. And do it.

Most important: Once you've made the decision don't look back.

[NoBSWebDesign]

Perhaps one of the reasons that you haven't been able to drum up interest is because you won't share what it is. If you indeed have this great knowledge and insight that no one can replicate, then there should be absolutely nothing holding you back from telling us what this idea or field is. This would really allow us to help you in a way that is meaningful.

Another observation I'd like to point out is that in 6 years, you could have learned to program and done it yourself. I've learned to program and started 3 companies in the past 4 years.

So, my question for you is, do you really believe in this idea enough to do what it takes to make it happen? If not, then go to IBM and milk what you can of it.

[izak30]

OK, I may be missing something, but the fact that they put together a research group doesn't mean that they just started; or that the other people in the research group are less interested or motivated or experience than you. Maybe explain your special circumstances.

When I started, I was initially a bit distraught at the fact that there were a lot of people taking, and making a lot of money in my space; Everybody with any experience told me "They are solidifying the fact that there is value in that space, go do it better"; If you honestly believe that you can do it better, and you have the option, eh, why not?

[NSX2]

Well, they could be motivated and interested, but I doubt they have the experience, otherwise they would have, with their resources, started a long time ago.

About the do it better part, a bit harder. They have resources, but if they're just now starting to figure out what to do ... I know exactly what to do, but ... kinda hard to do it. So far it's a draw outcome wise, but they're making nice salaries doing something I like, meanwhile I lose interest in my gig while I spend more and more time doing this as a side project for free.

[rms]

What's your idea?

[NSX2]

How does that make a difference? Let's just say it's something that I know more about than however many PhDs they have looking into it and no matter how smart they are or what their budget is, it will be impossible to replicate the conditions that led to the insights I've gained about why things developed as they did and how to apply it to the business world.

Not saying it's because I'm smarter or anything, it's just a freak accident that resulted from my background and personal interests which came together in some unexpected ways to give me insight into what was worth paying to in this area while most people would have dismissed the whole area as not worth paying serious attention to to begin with.

So - question is:

a) Screw it, it's taking too long

or

b) It may be an uphill struggle but this is a good sign that it's at least worth continuing

[soundsop]

Let's just say it's something that I know more about than however many PhDs they have looking into it and no matter how smart they are or what their budget is, it will be impossible to replicate the conditions that led to the insights I've gained about why things developed as they did and how to apply it to the business world.

Then why not reveal the idea? I'm curious...

[aswanson]

Think about your life now, and your life at 75. What decision do you think your 75 year old self would wish you had made? Do what the old man tells you to do.

[NSX2]

But that's the thing. My life now sucks because I've spent most of my spare time researching this. And progress has been so slow. Friends have drifted away, etc.

If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them.

But the startup route ... hell I can't even find any programmers to put a demo together ...

I could make a career out of this "there" ... or just keep fumbling in the dark making teeny tiny progress (if any) while my personal/professional life suffers.

I don't know anymore. That's why I posted this, I guess.

Quite frankly the "75" year old me is saying, "Do what you want, but keep in mind you're going to need good health insurance as you grow older."

[aswanson]

If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them.

No they won't. You'll be a part of a dispirited bureauacracy, and nobody will care. They probably won't even finish the project.

Your best bet is to get a bunch of young college age programmers to work with you. They are unemployed and are ready to hit it out of the park. If I was in NYC I would hear you out and try to help. Start looking for talent where the people are hungry.

[NSX2]

> our best bet is to get a bunch of young college age > programmers to work with you.

Columbia couldn't seem to care less, and the entire NYU structure has so far gotten ... hold your breath ... 2 resumes. Only one of which was remotely relevant, but not experienced enough to take initiative on this.

And since I'm not a programmer, I don't have the experience to provide guidance in that department.

I don't know why, but NY is not very start-uppity at all. People here fantasize about going to work for the IT dept. of Morgan Stanley or something.

[epi0Bauqu]

If you have valuable knowledge that no one else has (or can easily get), and you need programmers, why don't you share what you can here and see if anyone wants to join you? Presumably you can share enough to give people an idea of what you are doing?

[NSX2]

If I could find some programmers who won't dismiss my value after I've transferred my insights, I'd gladly do it. But judging from the thinking processes of what I see on posts here ...

Just to give an example, a few days ago a "bored developer" posted a post saying he was looking for good ideas. Whenever I see MBA/Financial-types posting on Hacker News looking for programmers, the response is usually, "Why should I partner with you - what value do you offer since you can't code?"

So I asked a simple question on this post: Suppose I share some ideas with you that you wind up developing. What do you offer in return? I was hoping maybe an arrangement like "I'll code on the weekends for your idea if you share an idea I like enough to pursue" or something. Instead everybody kept downmodding my post; last time I checked it was in the negative something range.

So if I can find people willing to go it on equal terms ...

[tim2]

> progress has been so slow. Friends have drifted away

Same here....

[whacked_new]

I have a friend who's been through a similar position, except in the hardware world. Last year he got a full time job, and while he says he still wants to pursue his idea, the likelihood is diminishing every day. Just for reference, he's a Ph.D. just above 30, and his idea comes from something he discovered coincidentally from his research.

If it is really a good idea, find a partner who complements your skills. Assembling a team is probably the hardest part. If you can't assemble one, all odds are against you, no matter how good the idea is. If you don't have people at your disposal, you have to convince other people the idea is good; you'll have to prove it some way or another.

If you're like my friend, who has extensive knowledge beyond what competitors would have in several years, the idea is unobvious enough that even if you outline it understandably, you don't have worries about competitors. If it isn't at that level of sophistication, my bet is that even if competitors haven't thought through things as thoroughly as you have, they will have implementations that are simply good enough.

[Prrometheus]

I’ve had a similar frustration, which is why I’m learning to code. I’ve never really wanted to code per se, but I want to be able to do things, to mock up a prototype. People seem to understand ideas better when you show them something than when you tell them something, and people want to work with other people who can add value.

And hey, I like applied math, so I’ll probably enjoy coding well enough.

[aneesh]

If you haven't done it in 6 years, I don't think you care enough about this particular idea. I'd be more than happy to be proved wrong though :)

[NSX2]

If I didn't care I think I would have shrugged it off a long time ago. Not trying to do it until recently has been more the result of massive amount of change in this area which I found I just barely kept up with. I just barely got to the point a year ago or so where I had time to reflect and think how this can translate into something useful.

So it was more like 6 years observation and thinking in a sort of real-world lab experiment, and only the last year or so of "apply lessons learned".

But since I'm not a programmer, and most programmers I've come across are working on their own projects, I couldn't figure out exactly how to proceed ... and based on the limited feed back I got, whether it was even worth proceeding or if I was just fooling myself and seeing an oasis.

Plus regardless of whether I cared enough, now that I found this out I realize it's a valid thing to more than just me. So now I care more. It's just been a long, unrewarding (except the intellectual curiosity part), clumsy, guideless trip so far.

My "adult" self tells me to give up and move on, or perhaps profit from it by working for "the man" ... but then again, what if I wind up 10 years ago in a situation where I say, "Dammit - I should have tried for just one more year - but instead I gave up and now look what happened - it took off right after I gave up and somebody else is doing it."

[misterbwong]

Your situation is seems similar to Guy Kawasaki's Truemors experiment. You have something that you believe is interesting/useful but the market didn't believe you. IBM looking into it signals a market change in your favor. Since that's the case, I say do it.

However, it sounds like you need two things (er...people). A star programmer and a star evangelist. The first can be had (for a price). The second is harder to find. Either you need to become one or you need to hire someone that already is one.

Reference: http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/by_the_numbers_.html

[NSX2]

Well, these are good points. I guess I could do the evangelist part or let someone else do it, but really I think it could speak for itself. As for the article in your link, I could be wrong since I'm not him, but something tells me his reputation had something to do with that "I got my application built for $12,000" equation.

Even if the market hasn't changed yet, I'd say that them devoting brainpower/budgets into looking into it full-time might meand that they, too suspect it may change this way. Quite honestly I can't believe it didn't change this way a long time ago.

[rms]

Hey, you have "email me" in your profile info, but a feature of this site is that the email box in your profile only shows up to administrators. So you need to write your email address again in your about me.

[Prrometheus]

Do what you can to implement your idea, even if you make less money off of it. People seldom have only one good idea in life, and then you can point to that implementation as an example of what you can do next time around.

[curi]

Why not call IBM? You might enjoy it. More resources. Maybe you can make progress faster.

Going it alone is hard. It's necessary if no one agrees with you, or no one else would do it right. But here? I don't see the compelling reason not to team up with IBM. You'll cooperate with people and see valuable work done; you'll be part of something good and effective.

[NSX2]

That might work. If it doesn't, I'll threaten to publish everything online for free, thus negating their own efforts and rendering their money spent into a black-hole of no return.

[curi]

if you haven't noticed, your thread is dead. also my votes don't count now like rms'.

btw don't make threats lightly, and maybe you shouldn't post about them in public in advance.

edit: i don't know why it's dead. and your reply to this is dead too and i can't reply to it. but the parent of this comment is not dead.