[aioprisan]

VW stock plunged 40%, they've set aside billions but that won't be enough for the lawsuits and massive fines that will get levied. Let's do some math. VW has a $50B cap now. No one is going to buy VW cars for a while, so the bleeding will continue. With 11 million cars affected and an average price of $20-30k, even a $5k reimbursement or fine or fixes per car that's involved, that's $55B that's gone up in smoke. Do you think that I, as a VW owner, will be able to get a good car resale value, even after a fix that will likely leave my car less powerful or get worse fuel economy? Those are your only two options. The amount of willful deception and fraud that needed to take place at all levels of this company's management will make a great study for what not to do for decades to come. This company is done, the only option is for the German government to step in and bankroll a large bailout package.

[hebdo]

You overestimate the damage. First, it only affects diesel engines.

Second, I'm not sure that 25% of the sticker price is an adequate compensation. After all what needs to be done is these cars need to be permanently reprogrammed, and as you say it means power reduction and worse fuel economy. But by how much? It has been a few years now that we (as customers) have to deal with the common industry practice of advertising unrealistic fuel consumption statistics, so I'd say to some extent more car-makers are similarly boned here.

Third, Volkswagen is a group, and owns quite a lot of brands: Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, Volkswagen, Ducati, MAN, Scania, Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles.

Fourth, it is common that such investigations go on for years without end. Microsoft f.eg. did not pay a single penny for the IE antitrust case.

[aioprisan]

> First, it only affects diesel engines.

According to VW, it affects 11 million cars with type EA 189 engines: "In its new statement, VW gave more details, admitting that "discrepancies" related to vehicles with Type EA 189 engines and involved some 11 million vehicles worldwide." (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-...).

>It has been a few years now that we (as customers) have to deal with the common industry practice of advertising unrealistic fuel consumption statistics, so I'd say to some extent more car-makers are similarly boned here.

No, that would be fraud. Care to cite examples of such "common industry practice"?

> Third, Volkswagen is a group

That won't make them less open to litigation.

> Fourth, it is common that such investigations go on for years without end.

Yes, investigation and litigation will take years, but effects will be felt suddenly, such as VW cars not being able to get re-registered and driven on roads since they don't comply with emission standards, causing economic hardship and potentially larger lawsuits against VW. I think juries will be rather sympathetic to a few testimonies to that effect.

[selimthegrim]

A reflash won't be the end of it - if they don't retrofit SCR (and modify the EGR system for increased usage) they are going to have every owner of a detuned car suing them.

[Oletros]

> No one is going to buy VW cars for a while,

I highly doubt this

> With 11 million cars affected and an average price of $20-30k, even a $5k reimbursement or fine or fixes per car that's involved

This is supposing that they will be fined for the 11 million vehicles

[aioprisan]

You're saying that only some of them were equipped with defeat devices? They were all equipped to mislead the public and deceive regulators, giving their cars an edge as a premium car with better handling, more reliability and gas economy. Most people compare multiple cars before making a decision, and the faked stats are clear grounds for adverse action against VW. I certainly wouldn't want to be stuck with a VW now.

[Oletros]

No, I'm saying that it is just speculation that they will be fined for the 11 million vehicles.

[aioprisan]

I got the 11 million number from the VW statement: "In its new statement, VW gave more details, admitting that "discrepancies" related to vehicles with Type EA 189 engines and involved some 11 million vehicles worldwide." (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-...)

$5k fine/devaluation per car is potentially an underestimation as well, we simply don't know, I used that as a ceiling for the entire value of the company, which at a cursory pass, doesn't seem unreasonable.

[Oletros]

Having discrepancies in 11 million vehicles doesn't mean being fined for 11 million vehicles

[aioprisan]

While I can't speak for the rest of the world, the US EPA can fine the manufacturer $37.5k per car with such "discrepancies": "Whether the $7.3 billion set aside is enough to cover VW's costs from the scandal remains to be seen. According to EPA rules, VW could be fined up to $37,500 for each vehicle not in compliance with emissions regulations, or a total of around $18 billion. California regulators could issue their own fines." "The crisis began Friday when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency accused Volkswagen of installing sophisticated software on nearly 500,000 U.S. vehicles to manipulate emissions tests."

So for the 500k cars sold in the US, they can be fined $37.5k/car, that ads up to $18.75B. And that's just the US costs, assuming absolutely no adverse action for the other 10,500,000 cars that are affected worldwide for these "discrepancies". Do you think there will be 0 costs for the other 10,950,000 affected cars?