[Oletros]

> No one is going to buy VW cars for a while,

I highly doubt this

> With 11 million cars affected and an average price of $20-30k, even a $5k reimbursement or fine or fixes per car that's involved

This is supposing that they will be fined for the 11 million vehicles

[aioprisan]

You're saying that only some of them were equipped with defeat devices? They were all equipped to mislead the public and deceive regulators, giving their cars an edge as a premium car with better handling, more reliability and gas economy. Most people compare multiple cars before making a decision, and the faked stats are clear grounds for adverse action against VW. I certainly wouldn't want to be stuck with a VW now.

[Oletros]

No, I'm saying that it is just speculation that they will be fined for the 11 million vehicles.

[aioprisan]

I got the 11 million number from the VW statement: "In its new statement, VW gave more details, admitting that "discrepancies" related to vehicles with Type EA 189 engines and involved some 11 million vehicles worldwide." (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-...)

$5k fine/devaluation per car is potentially an underestimation as well, we simply don't know, I used that as a ceiling for the entire value of the company, which at a cursory pass, doesn't seem unreasonable.

[Oletros]

Having discrepancies in 11 million vehicles doesn't mean being fined for 11 million vehicles

[aioprisan]

While I can't speak for the rest of the world, the US EPA can fine the manufacturer $37.5k per car with such "discrepancies": "Whether the $7.3 billion set aside is enough to cover VW's costs from the scandal remains to be seen. According to EPA rules, VW could be fined up to $37,500 for each vehicle not in compliance with emissions regulations, or a total of around $18 billion. California regulators could issue their own fines." "The crisis began Friday when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency accused Volkswagen of installing sophisticated software on nearly 500,000 U.S. vehicles to manipulate emissions tests."

So for the 500k cars sold in the US, they can be fined $37.5k/car, that ads up to $18.75B. And that's just the US costs, assuming absolutely no adverse action for the other 10,500,000 cars that are affected worldwide for these "discrepancies". Do you think there will be 0 costs for the other 10,950,000 affected cars?

[Oletros]

I don't know for what and how much will be fined.

You're so sure that they will be fined a lot for all the cars.

Who is the one making assumptions? You, not me.