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by maxerickson 4025 days ago
My issue isn't with the point that the base rate matters, it's with the mathematricality.

And I do think that is fair, if there is not a simple way of actually measuring the utility and such (re your complaint about $diseases, medicine has at least somewhat reliable tests), all the stuff about the modeling is just theatrics.
1 comments
yummyfajitas 4025 days ago
Am I correct in interpreting this post as saying "I agree base rate matters, I just wish you didn't provide a toy example illustrating that?"

Also, I now strongly recommend you go through the exercise I suggested. Then you'll realize that accurate tests do NOT somehow eliminate the need for models or accounting for base rates.

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maxerickson 4025 days ago
Also, I now strongly recommend you go through the exercise I suggested. Then you'll realize that accurate tests do NOT somehow eliminate the need for models or accounting for base rates.

I'm reaching for the opposite point. Some sort of meaningful evaluation of actual outcomes is necessary to make utilitarian decisions. If the evaluation of the outcome is arbitrary, then so is the decision.

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