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by yummyfajitas
4025 days ago
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Am I correct in interpreting this post as saying "I agree base rate matters, I just wish you didn't provide a toy example illustrating that?" Also, I now strongly recommend you go through the exercise I suggested. Then you'll realize that accurate tests do NOT somehow eliminate the need for models or accounting for base rates. |
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I'm reaching for the opposite point. Some sort of meaningful evaluation of actual outcomes is necessary to make utilitarian decisions. If the evaluation of the outcome is arbitrary, then so is the decision.