[keslag]

I think that's the wrong thing to worry about. Buggy whip craftsman, whalers, lamplighters, and millions of defunct roles shouldn't be something we worry about. Progress shouldn't be stunted to give people jobs. Those people, often of low skill, need to either adapt and create their own innovations, or take equally dire positions of low skill. It sounds harsh, but your career is your responsibility, not someone else's problem. If you're doing something that can be automated, assume it will be.

[rpcope1]

I think we are on the crux of a time where automation is going to quickly replace more jobs than it creates; while it may not have been hard to transition a carriage maker into a factory worker in the early 1900's, I have strong doubts that replacement tasks will exist as the job pool potentially shrinks this time around. As well, you must remember that while many of the readers of HN are perhaps gifted, young individuals, there is a huge swath of society that is not capable of "adapting or creating innovations" on the time span needed to counter a movement like that. We can yell and patronize about how everyone needs to pick themselves up by their bootstraps, but the reality is usually only a select few people can actually do this, and usually only some fraction of the time. As a sort of consequence, all of this automation tends to concentrate the wealth, and when you have all of these people who are not capable of making a living in society any more, this creates huge societal problems.

I foresee a day coming that some or most software development becomes automated, only needing a very select few to make the machine continue to turn; it will be interesting to see what we all say then.

[keslag]

The day developers aren't needed is the day we no longer need jobs.

[mc32]

I understand and I agree in some ways with what you say, dont stunt progress in the name of social stability because arguably new jobs will avail themselves to those who are willing to learn.

I don't know how long this trickling up will last. I would like to see a society which addressed the impact of progress differently and see how things turn out, so I'd like to see Japan take an alternative path we all might have something to learn from a different approach.

Moreover, I think society owes some responsibility to the individuals who contributed to the previous stage and make an effort to keep them employable in some way.

[klenwell]

Taking your familiar conceit to its logical conclusion here, it makes me wonder whether the only jobs that ultimately won't be automated for all those people unequal to the daunting feats of adaptation or innovation expected of them are freedom fighter or terrorist.

[nosuchthing]

Terminator 2 predicted both of those roles will be automated.

[taksintik]

Well said