[jallmann]

Successful social businesses have a big moat in the form of network effects. If it were any easier to cross the social-networking moat, Facebook would not have paid $19 billion for Whatsapp. Attracting and retaining users is hard.

The numbers needed to match Facebook are big. The fact that Whatsapp, Viber, Line, etc are even able to approach those numbers speaks volumes: they have succeeded in executing on their businesses, and there is demand in the market for solid messaging products that evidently the incumbents have not been able to fill. Buying out a (exceptionally successful) startup before it becomes a potential competitor makes total sense.

[taurath]

Attracting and retaining users isn't hard. Attracting and retaining users that will pay you is hard. Give out free slices of cake to people on the street and you'll have lots and lots of users, and they'll probably come back. Selling marketers billboard space behind your free cake stand isn't very profitable unless the cake is very cheap - but if the cake is cheap then just about anyone can bake cakes.

[jallmann]

> Attracting and retaining users isn't hard.

Have you tried? It is hard, especially in a saturated market with plenty of choices. For mass media (TV, news, social), the scarcity relationship is reversed: you're effectively competing for the user's time and attention. Almost zero-sum, especially when considering the allocation of advertising dollars.

Additionally, the barrier of entry is low, since anyone can make a Twitter clone in 20 lines of Ruby on Rails. So you'd be trying to carve out a niche in social, fighting against network effects and the dozen other college dropouts working on the same idea, while hoping Facebook won't decide to implement your differentiating feature. That's not easy.

> Attracting and retaining users that will pay you is hard.

For purely discretionary purchases, yes. This is what makes the success of eg, Viber all the more remarkable. They made a $900 million business by selling electronic stickers. Anyone can sell stupid stickers, but it takes sheer execution to get $900 million for it. Not easy at all.

Since it's so difficult to get paying users in social, you can hedge by relying on a (slightly) less elastic source of revenue: selling those eyeballs and clicks to advertisers. But the traffic needs to be high and consistent for a scalable operation. And again, you're back to square one. Not so easy.

[nicktal]

Attracting and retaining users, on mobile especially, is extremely tough, no matter how good your "cake" tastes, even if it is free.

[btilly]

Successful social businesses have a big moat in the form of network effects. If it were any easier to cross the social-networking moat, Facebook would not have paid $19 billion for Whatsapp. Attracting and retaining users is hard.

I know of multiple ways of trying to estimate the magnitude of network effects. All come up with social networks creating O(n log(n)) value for users. If true, that result demonstrates that network effects are significant, but a better competitor does not have to have nearly the scale you'd think to be able to compete head on against the big giants.

That said, I wouldn't recommend going head to head versus FB for your next startup. But there will be no shortage of future companies posing a threat to FB like the one that FB posed to MySpace before it. And like MySpace posed to Friendster earlier on.

Let's be honest. FB has a lot of advantages here. They are the first mover, they have a ton of resources, and they have appropriate levels of paranoia about this issue. But still I'd give them substantially less than even odds of being the social king when, say, 2030 rolls around.

[jallmann]

> I wouldn't recommend going head to head versus FB for your next startup.

Yep. The threat to FB or any similarly dominant company isn't head-on, but rather sideways, where peripheral businesses could eat into their core. So far, Facebook is doing a pretty good job of recognizing those risks.

An interesting exercise is to think of how companies have handled those risks and the effects of that. Eg, IBM's stance on software as they gave Microsoft exclusive licensing rights, only to backtrack with OS/2 and giving up. Microsoft dismissing the Internet, then playing "me-too" ever since with Bing, Windows Phone, Azure, etc etc. Google's social networking efforts with Orkut, Buzz and Plus.

> less than even odds of being the social king when, say, 2030 rolls around.

Agreed, when you're dominating a competitive industry, it's pretty hard to stay on top indefinitely. Nowhere to go but down.