[jallmann]

> I wouldn't recommend going head to head versus FB for your next startup.

Yep. The threat to FB or any similarly dominant company isn't head-on, but rather sideways, where peripheral businesses could eat into their core. So far, Facebook is doing a pretty good job of recognizing those risks.

An interesting exercise is to think of how companies have handled those risks and the effects of that. Eg, IBM's stance on software as they gave Microsoft exclusive licensing rights, only to backtrack with OS/2 and giving up. Microsoft dismissing the Internet, then playing "me-too" ever since with Bing, Windows Phone, Azure, etc etc. Google's social networking efforts with Orkut, Buzz and Plus.

> less than even odds of being the social king when, say, 2030 rolls around.

Agreed, when you're dominating a competitive industry, it's pretty hard to stay on top indefinitely. Nowhere to go but down.