[dannnn]

> Do Any of those cited give specific timelines? Even if we are very far away, do you really doubt that one day machines will have superhuman intelligence? I take that as pretty much a given, whether it's 50 or 500 years from now

Why? If you extrapolate from the amount of progress we have made toward AGI in the last 50 years (ie, none), then it's reasonable to argue that we still will have made no progress 50 and 500 years from now.

There are intellectual problems that humans aren't capable of solving; it wouldn't make any sense to talk about "superhuman intelligence" if that wasn't the case. The currently available evidence suggests that "constructing an AGI" might very well be one of those problems.

[weavejester]

> If you extrapolate from the amount of progress we have made toward AGI in the last 50 years (ie, none)

That's an odd way of defining progress.

> There are intellectual problems that humans aren't capable of solving; it wouldn't make any sense to talk about "superhuman intelligence" if that wasn't the case.

A superhuman intelligence doesn't necessarily have to come up with solutions humans would never think of, it just needs to come up with a solution in less time, or with less available data, or with fewer attempts.