I'm really interested to see if the r-naught is sustainable in developed countries. This paper (http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2...) projects it as between 1.0 and 2.0 -- the nurse in Dallas makes it at least 1 for the first US case, but it could be a few more weeks to know if she was the only one.
>Our statistical analysis of the reproduction number of EVD in West Africa has demonstrated that the continuous growth of cases from June to August 2014 signalled a major epidemic, which is in line with estimates of the Rt above 1.0. Moreover, the timing of Rt reaching levels above one is in line with a concomitant surge in cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia. In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.
Not good. R~2 is a deeply scary figure. R1.7 is better but still wildly explosive. 1.4 puts us in run of the mill "ballooning epidemic" territory.
The best case estimates of R-naught for Africa don't have a whole lot of "best" about them.
Clearly the dataset outside Africa isn't large enough to support meaningful analysis yet. I hope it stays that way, and Africa can get its arms around this thing before it kills millions.
Problem is, the data from West Africa is so bad in quality it could easily be 3 (e.g. I believe that's in line with the CDC's worst case estimate for January).
Not good. R~2 is a deeply scary figure. R1.7 is better but still wildly explosive. 1.4 puts us in run of the mill "ballooning epidemic" territory.
The best case estimates of R-naught for Africa don't have a whole lot of "best" about them.
Clearly the dataset outside Africa isn't large enough to support meaningful analysis yet. I hope it stays that way, and Africa can get its arms around this thing before it kills millions.