If I understand you correctly, your estimate is way off. Have a look at the bitstamp exchange rate for the last 8 months. Looks like around 40% of days closed at a price above the current price.
In my example I was using a 1 year horizon. So none of those closing prices would be charted until they had a year to mature.
I think I would need to make a slider so that you could explore the concept at various time horizons -- 8 months might bring a 50% occurrence of profit.
But my expectation is that at 1 year 95% of investments are sound, while at 2 years it would be 100%.
I think I would need to make a slider so that you could explore the concept at various time horizons -- 8 months might bring a 50% occurrence of profit.
But my expectation is that at 1 year 95% of investments are sound, while at 2 years it would be 100%.