[sh1mmer]

Having not read his book, was I the only person annoyed that he used the phrase "black swan" a dozen times in the first paragraph without qualifying it?

He could have been saying "You and your party may be the only hope we have for a resilient society insulated from negative oranges and in which everyone has the opportunity to benefit from positive oranges." for all the difference it makes to me.

[dtf]

I cringed too - especially at the capitalization. I shall cringe again when Cameron starts using it. Forced memes like "black swan", "outlier" and "tipping point" are like little mini-advertisements for their books and their authors. Getting them into the vocabulary of politicians and business leaders is the ultimate marketing ploy.

[pbhjpbhj]

I honestly don't know what memes you're referring too (nor the books) but outlier and tipping point have basic meanings without interpretation: tipping point is a cusp or specifically the point at which the force vector originating at the centre-of-gravity passes outside the foot of a body causing it to tip over. Outliers are statistical anomalies or unexpected results that are usually ignored as if they are insignificant.

Black swans on the other hand are birds with a particular pigment.

Now what are the additional layers of meaning, we see black swans referring to apparently unlikely events that nevertheless will occur (that's possibly not the definition given by this guy), but what about the super-definitions for the others?

[ErrantX]

That was my hang up too. Then when he did get round to the definition it's clear he needs a bit more than a sentence to qualify what he means: because call me a gambler but Black Swan's sound pretty much like something we should avoid planning for or risk getting paranoid.

(and even though I did start reading his book and do sort of know what he's on about I still cant get away from that feeling. Why cant he say "lets not be arrogant and high risk" without having to qualify it with IMO a poor reason (surely the sentence alone should be enough):(

[jpcx01]

Ditto. I read his book, and liked it. But this letter seems to try to force the point a little much.