Everyone is both lucky and unlucky .. the universe is pretty random. IMO, those achieve great things notice quicker and react better to turns of fortune (good or bad).
Random =/= an even distribution of lucky and unlucky. Randomness clumps together and can be decidedly un-random looking at times. Some people do not get a fair shake, and despite their notable efforts, still find themselves on the short end of the stick.
You can't fail if you don't try. Sounds stupid, but not every opportunity is worth it. Risk can and will bite. You don't get an INC cover story by ruining your personal life though.
More drastically, use the Omaha Beach landing, as depicted in Saving Private Ryan, as an example:
All soldiers were equally equipped, motivated, trained. But then a grenade falls from the sky and hits your landing vessel. Completely outside of your control, but still you're fucked and die.
Happens to the best, to this day, SEAL, DEVGRU or not.
Bad luck is bad luck.
Same in business.
Do everything right and still fail.
Luck is underrated.
There is Risk Management, I wonder if Luck Management is something that will arise in the future. Chance works both ways.
However, while you can fail multiple times, you only have to strike "super success" once.
(As Nassim Taleb is also trending on HN right now) It's an antifragile situation: Facing extreme events, the upside is large whereas the downside is limited.
So, yes - (bad) luck as a function of hard work is highly volatile. But as it is antifragile, volatility is a good thing.
That's the point of saying "is a function of". No one knows exactly what the function IS, but the function for luck comes from those two qualities. Others, too.