[myzerox]

However, while you can fail multiple times, you only have to strike "super success" once. (As Nassim Taleb is also trending on HN right now) It's an antifragile situation: Facing extreme events, the upside is large whereas the downside is limited.

So, yes - (bad) luck as a function of hard work is highly volatile. But as it is antifragile, volatility is a good thing.