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by aston 4570 days ago
The projection graph does assume flat physical sales. But it's a stacked chart.

Paying to paying is not completely unreasonable, but imagine an airline using the average fares of its Airline Club members (who are often flying first class) vs the fares of average Americans. It's easy to inflate the number when the group of people you're talking about are rich and predisposed to being more engaged.

edit to your edit: It's not clear to me why you would be willing to listen to Spotify for free, but then buy music on the side. Anecdotally, I've never met anyone who does that consistently. I'd be interested to hear contradicting anecdotes though.
3 comments
jere 4570 days ago
Ok, gotcha. Eyeballing the graph it looks like physical alone is rising and also you seemed to be implying physical would start to grow.

I've bought so few physical music products over my life that I assume my buying habits are completely different than the average person... but I have no idea. One case you might consider is gifts. On an impulse, I bought several Christmas music CDs last year and I also happen to use ad supported Spotify.

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earbitscom 4570 days ago
Yeah, there is also a bit of this at play when Spotify talks about what they pay artists. They say they pay an average of 70% of revenues, but they don't explain that major labels get way better rates per stream, not just because of the volume of streams. It would be akin to Wal Mart boasting an average $22 per hour salary for all workers because their CEO makes $100M a year while all others make minimum wage.
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wmf 4570 days ago
That doesn't really square with Spotify's own explanation where equal market share should get equal payout: http://www.spotifyartists.com/spotify-explained/#royalties-i...
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earbitscom 4566 days ago
In that first graph is says X 4 (Artist's Royalty Rate). So it is based on market share, and some rate, which they would have simply said is Y had it been the same for everyone.
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thedufer 4570 days ago
In college I knew some people who bought music on iTunes and then bought the same music in vinyls. I wouldn't expect an iTunes->Spotify switch to change their vinyl habit.
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