[ekianjo]

I don't see how it can encourage investment if inflation punishes savers. Savers are at the source of investment. If nobody saves where do you borrow money for your startup? Oh, let me guess, by borrowing from other creditor countries, where people actually save, like in China and Japan ?

Yeah, you are right, that worked pretty well for the US industry in the past 30 years to have a galoping inflation. Look where your industries went.

[dllthomas]

"I don't see how it can encourage investment if inflation punishes savers. Savers are at the source of investment. If nobody saves where do you borrow money for your startup?"

You're conflating all saving. Stashing money under my mattress (or in a vault) is not a source of investment. Saving is investment only if investing is how you save - investing is currently how you save partly because cash holdings lose value.

"Yeah, you are right, that worked pretty well for the US industry in the past 30 years to have a galoping inflation. Look where your industries went."

1) Inflation has not been "galloping" over most of the past 30 years. 2) I certainly don't assert that high levels of inflation are a good thing - low, controlled, stable, present seems to give the best results. 3) Nonetheless, yes, look where our industries went: mostly to countries with weaker currencies and more inflation.

[ekianjo]

I'm not sure where you get the illusion that we do not have a galloping inflation. See the gold price vs USD :

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_all_data_o_usd.png

And no, there has not been a "run for Gold" or things like that, Gold is not used as a currency anywhere a demand is still relatively low and stable.

So that gives you a sense of how much inflation you have been getting over the years. It's certainly faster than the official numbers. And anyone who has lived through the past 30 years should know very well that you could buy more commodities with a single dollar in the 80s than you can buy nowadays with the same amount.

Regarding savings -> you know most people do not get paid directly in cash, right? Most if not not all employers require de facto a bank account in order to pay salaries (we are not in the 60s anymore) and most of the savings go and stay there when you work. These savings become funds that the bank can use to emit loans and different financial services to private companies.

[gnaritas]

The price of gold is not a measure of inflation.

Banks don't get most of the money they loan from deposits, they create it from fractional reserve banking via the money multiplier.

Continual low inflation is good for the economy, it encourages spending and investment and discourages hoarding cash. The purpose of money is not as a store of value, but as an enabler of economic exchange. If you want to store value, invest in assets of some sort. Money is not meant for saving, people with money know this, it's why they don't keep their fortunes liquid.

[ekianjo]

> they create it from fractional reserve banking via the money multiplier.

Yes, but they need cash in the first place in order to use the "multiplier" defined by regulators. They cannot create money ad vitam eternam without cash deposits. When there is a crisis, a bank low on real cash value will go bankrupt very easily. Have you already forgotten?

[gnaritas]

Was there a point in stating the obvious?

[ekianjo]

You tell me. By the way, you still have not explained why a zero inflation is not preferable to some low inflation. You said:

"it encourages spending and investment and discourages hoarding cash."

But inflation discourages savings (as I said, critical for the banking system, and therfore impacting investment), and hoarding cash would be anyway discouraged in case you have zero inflation, because you would be able to place your money in portfolio to gain more than 0 on yearly returns (dividends at least). So there would be no net return in hoarding cash. Or are you saying you need inflation to have growth ? In that case you would be mistaken, there was ample growth even when the markets were following the Gold standards...

So I am not really sure where you come from to recommend "low inflation". Besides, who can ensure the inflation remains low, and who can control that there is no dumping of cash on the market when there is a central bank in charge, serving the current political agenda ?

Again, what's good with Bitcoin and Gold is that they are both neutral and relatively free of political control (well, at least for Bitcoin).

[dllthomas]

I looked at this in some depth a few months back and my conclusion was that the commodities which are up are up substantially over reported inflation primarily because of changes in supply and demand. I don't recall the details and do not have time right now to redo the analysis, but since my results match official results I think it's incumbent on you to make an actual case rather than relying on assertion.

[nunb]

The idea of "conflating all saving" is itself wrong.

Saving is a matter of time preference, specifically, preferring to consume in the future. That implies carrying forward surplus value from today to be spent tomorrow. Let's say you have a choice of how to go about it: G, or W.

Strategy G is to stash gold in a mattress. Strategy W is to buy stock of Webvan/Amazon.

Let X = present value to save T = timestamp at present d = value delta t = time delta

Now at time T+t you want to have X+d value where d=0 is okay, but (d < 0) is unacceptable.

Now the choice between G and W is as follows: W has to offer you a higher rate of return than merely holding the gold in strategy G.

Gold will increase in value (price) if more produce is offered in exchange at time T+t, assuming stock of gold is constant (which it is, to an approximation).

So what Webvan/Amazon must offer a rational investor is a better return than the rest of the aggregate efforts of human-kind. They must have high productivity.

This is precisely what makes capitalism and free-floating interest rates so efficient, capital is allocated to the most productive enterprises.

The ratio between spending preferences now and in the future determines the interest rate. A high interest rate implies that only higher-credit (in the sense of faith in their success) companies will get money.

The highly risky investments will simply not happen. There won't be any bubble mania.

In your conception, the idea that stashing gold is not productive is merely another way of saying "gold stashers don't fund Webvan" when looked at through this lens.

But it is good they don't! Everybody should have the right to sit on the side-lines and watch.

When the word "unproductive saving" and "hoarding" are used, they usually refer to this leave-me-alone strategy.

In periods of hard-money we saw great advancements in the standard of living of peoples around the world [ref Thiel?].

The free market always beats a planned economy. It doesn't matter if the planning is overt like the Soviet model or merely a plan to distort time preferences.

[grinnbearit]

> Now at time T+t you want to have X+d value where d=0 is okay, but (d < 0) is unacceptable. > ... a better return than the rest of the aggregate efforts of human-kind

If a venture produces a lower return than the rest of human kind, 'd' will be negative. Knowing whether d will be positive or negative let alone by how much is difficult.

> The highly risky investments will simply not happen. There won't be any bubble mania.

The high risk investments will absolutely happen but only if the rewards are commensurate. The issue with monetary policy is the skewing of risk/reward.

[dllthomas]

Here is how inflation encourages investment. Imagine a simplified world, wherein you are choosing whether or not to invest in a company. The company is able to produce 5000 utils of value later, with your investment, and is willing to give you 10% of the proceeds in exchange for your investment of $300 now.

If the going rate for utils is $1/util now, consider the following situations and strategies.

    Situation 1) Later, the market is clearing $0.50/util:
        Strategy a) Stick money under a mattress:
            You keep your $300 now.
            It becomes $300 later, and can buy you 600 utils.

        Strategy b) Invest in the company:
            You give your $300 now to the company.
            The company produces 5000 utils later.
            The company sells the 5000 utils for $2500.
            You get 10%, or $250, which can buy you 500 utils.

    2) Later, the market is clearing $1/util:
        a) Mattress:
            $300 now -> $300 later -> 600 utils.

        b) Invest:
            $300 now to company
            5000 utils later (for company) -> $5000 later (for company)
            10% is $500, which can buy you 500 utils.

    3) Later, $2/util:
        a) Mattress:
            $300 now -> $300 later -> 150 utils.

        b) Invest:
            $300 now to company
            5000 utils later (for company) -> $10000 later (for company)
            10% is $1000, which can buy you 500 utils.

As you can see, in the setup given - which is clearly a crude abstraction but shares some dynamics with reality - when there is sufficient deflation you would do better not to invest in the company, whereas with no inflation you do a little better to invest, and with inflation you do a lot better to invest. That's how inflation motivates investment. The key point is that investing now translates into some amount of value created that doesn't (in most cases) change with prices, so when you turn it back into money at the later rate (by selling what was produced) its relative value compared to not investing is lessened.

[grinnbearit]

You're not taking risk into account, the company is not guaranteed to produce 5000 utils of labour, it could produce less or worse go bankrupt and produce nothing.

With no inflation, my risk free investment of money under a mattress produces no return. My risky investment with the company has the probability of a positive or a negative return.

With inflation, I'm forced to make a risky investments to break even. True, I can no longer keep my money under a mattress but I'm still an unsophisticated investor and choose to park my labour in houses for example which inevitably leads to a housing bubble.

With deflation, I agree, people would rather not invest in a business producing a lower return than the rate of deflation but why would that deflation occur? One reason could be more goods chasing the same amount of money implying real economic growth.

The problem I have with the current inflationary system is the distribution of new money, if all currency held and prices denominated in that currency increased by the same factor. It would result in a nominal increase in prices. No one would be richer or poorer after the increase. The current system distributes new money to people who directly interact with the central bank, rewarding them at the expense of everyone else.

[dllthomas]

I didn't take risk into account because it simplified things. Run the numbers with risk and you'll see it doesn't change things substantially - it effectively just changes what percentage I expect to get from the company.

Your point about unsophisticated investors bearing more of that risk is a good one, but doesn't change the fact that inflation motivates investment and deflation motivates hoarding - it points out one negative consequence of motivating investment.

Regarding your last point, we're discussing potential problems with bitcoin. A criticism of the current system - well founded or not - doesn't amount to an endorsement of a particular policy in an alternative system. Do you object to bitcoin mining distributing new money to miners? If not, would you object to it continuing to do so through expansion of the bitcoin supply rather than switching over to paying miners more entirely through transaction fees? My broader point is simply and entirely that the cap on the number of bitcoins presents some long term risk to an economy using bitcoin as currency.

[grinnbearit]

A venture with a 75% chance of providing 5000 utils of value is not the same as a 100% chance of producing 3750 utils.

Put another way, inflation motivates gambling and deflation motivates saving - it points out a serious consequence of forced spending, namely a flight to other, less abstract stores of value.

I would like your views on what deflation represents in an economy, I understand people are saving/hoarding money but by never spending it don't they remove themselves from the system? On the other hand, wouldn't an increase in productivity lead to the same amount of money buying better/more goods?

Using a stupidly simple model, if the total productivity of a society using Bitcoin remained constant would there be any deflation? What if the total productivity fell?

We should discuss the implications of mining in another post :)