[dllthomas]

I didn't take risk into account because it simplified things. Run the numbers with risk and you'll see it doesn't change things substantially - it effectively just changes what percentage I expect to get from the company.

Your point about unsophisticated investors bearing more of that risk is a good one, but doesn't change the fact that inflation motivates investment and deflation motivates hoarding - it points out one negative consequence of motivating investment.

Regarding your last point, we're discussing potential problems with bitcoin. A criticism of the current system - well founded or not - doesn't amount to an endorsement of a particular policy in an alternative system. Do you object to bitcoin mining distributing new money to miners? If not, would you object to it continuing to do so through expansion of the bitcoin supply rather than switching over to paying miners more entirely through transaction fees? My broader point is simply and entirely that the cap on the number of bitcoins presents some long term risk to an economy using bitcoin as currency.

[grinnbearit]

A venture with a 75% chance of providing 5000 utils of value is not the same as a 100% chance of producing 3750 utils.

Put another way, inflation motivates gambling and deflation motivates saving - it points out a serious consequence of forced spending, namely a flight to other, less abstract stores of value.

I would like your views on what deflation represents in an economy, I understand people are saving/hoarding money but by never spending it don't they remove themselves from the system? On the other hand, wouldn't an increase in productivity lead to the same amount of money buying better/more goods?

Using a stupidly simple model, if the total productivity of a society using Bitcoin remained constant would there be any deflation? What if the total productivity fell?

We should discuss the implications of mining in another post :)