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by allochthon 4635 days ago
Also, bitcoin is deflationary by design. It will effectively run out at some point, if I understand the situation. I believe its proponents consider this a feature, but I suspect it will prove to be a liability.
1 comments

SO what? You can have tons of fractions of bitcoins, and that covers the needs of any micro-payment even if a single bitcoin becomes worth a million of dollars.
The issue is subtle. It has to do with the need for a currency supply to expand to match overall increases in production in absolute terms. I don't understand the matter in any detail, but I trust economists in their general aversion to deflation.
The more you learn about economics, the less you will trust economists. They have trouble predicting economic growth one quarter ahead[1] and there are tons of competing schools and models on the macro level that endlessly bicker without coming to agreement (not one of which is very good at predicting the future). They have like, degrees and shit, so the world considers them experts. But take them with a grain of salt.

[1] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-10/not-world-youre-hop...

There have been tons of economies which worked before on the Gold standard, which has been the model for the bitcoin "mining" model. I know nowadays you have lots of Keynesian economists who tell you that going in debt to the death and inflating the money supply is a good thing, but you have to look at how things worked before and why it made sense to have a limited supply currency.
the difference being that they kept discovering gold. bitcoin will effectively eventually run out.
Nope, the new discoveries of gold were usually marginal vs the actual worldwide gold reserves. Bitcoin is following the exact same model. Mining will become marginal over time.
>>the new discoveries of gold were usually marginal vs the actual worldwide gold reserves

I think 17th century Portugal and others would have something to say about how "stable" commodity monetary systems are over long periods of time.

You nailed it actually. Yeah, you can delve deeper, but the bottom line is one of basic supply and demand.

As the world continues to output more (i.e. increased production), the same Bitcoin will be competing for more goods (or, it can be said that more goods are competing for the same Bitcoin).

So Bitcoin's value can be said to increase accordingly. In other words, deflation.

Now, whether this is a bad thing is subject to debate. Here's an article that discusses this, specifically WRT deflation not being a bad thing with Bitcoin:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/23/fear-not-d...

Divisibility helps to be sure, but there are other issues. Expectation of deflation discourages spending and investment, because the currency I would spend will itself be worth more tomorrow.
No, the currency would not appreciate much more if you keep it down the road, since bitcoin's value curve becomes almost flat when you reach that point, so there's no real value in hoarding your bitcoins when you reach that stage.
> since bitcoin's value curve becomes almost flat when you reach that point

What? The value of a currency is not only determined by how much of it there is, but by how much the economy needs to function. If the economy grows bitcoins will have to depreciate to allow smaller and smaller pieces to be traded. That's deflation, and it's bad. Divisibility isn't a feature, it's a bug that'll kill the currency in the long run because prices are sticky (people raise prices faster than they drop them) and the economy handles inflation far better than it handles deflation.

Hahah. Funny argument. Inflation is killing your economy, rather, because it encourages spending and frenetic consumption, this depleting the banks of the well needed savings that will be used for investment by private companies. Yeah, inflation works "so well", right.
> Funny argument.

That's not an argument, it's simply how the economy works.

> Inflation is killing your economy

No it isn't.

> rather, because it encourages spending and frenetic consumption

Our economy is based on consumption, like it or not.

> this depleting the banks of the well needed savings that will be used for investment by private companies.

You don't really know how banks work do you.

> Yeah, inflation works "so well", right.

Actually yes, it does. You should educate yourself a bit on how the economy actually works, you sound like someone with little more than a high school understanding full of misconceptions and bad ideas.

Inflation encourages investment. If I can get a return sticking my money under a (literal or metaphorical) matress why would I take a risk with investing it? Funding your startup would be more expensive and more difficult in a deflationary world.
So, the economy is growing, with the same number of bitcoins chasing more goods (or actually, fewer and fewer bitcoins chasing more goods, as some get lost or destroyed) and (as you pointed out) people deal with this in part by splitting the bitcoins smaller in terms of what they actually spend. That obviously leads to the currency becoming more valuable as you can exchange the same amount of currency for more other stuff, right?

It's worse than that, because expectation of deflation means people hoard rather than spending, which means still fewer coins actually in circulation.

The entire economy can run just fine with 1 infinitely divisible bitcoin in circulation. Any bitcoins held can only have an effect if they are spent.

The buyer who converted his labour into bitcoin has, in effect, provided free labour unless he converts the bitcoin back.

> The entire economy can run just fine with 1 infinitely divisible bitcoin in circulation.

That's a strong empirical statement made without evidence.

> Any bitcoins held can only have an effect if they are spent.

Kind of. But bitcoins (or fractions thereof) being removed from circulation has an effect. And the expectation that that will happen has an effect.