[aptwebapps]

I'd add:

5. He finally gets stir crazy enough to attempt to sneak out and gets collared or just decides to take his chances in Sweden.

6. Ecuador gets sick of him and kicks him out (maybe after a change of leadership).

And I think 5 is likelier than 3.

[potatolicious]

I feel like 6 is likely to happen before anything else. His presence is a net negative for Ecuador, I can't see it being very popular that they have a highly wanted individual hanging around the house all day.

[gaius]

Swedish jails are actually very humane; the irony is he would have gotten more sunlight, fresh air, exercise and probably better food too, if he had just surrendered a year ago.

[kryten]

Until they extradite him to the US that is...

[gaius]

Would be a breach of EU law if they did - as he was extradited from the UK, he has to be returned to the UK. And if the UK was going to extradite him, why would he be so keen on staying here?

[aptwebapps]

As far as extradition goes, he's technically in Ecuador right now, not the UK. If he were, he'd be gone already ;)