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by sneak
4803 days ago
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I don't know about 85%+. Sure, a majority, but the big differentiator these days (vs MacOS/Win32) is HTML5/JS. Lots of things don't need to be native apps, and aren't/won't be. There isn't as much downside to picking the minority OS anymore. This is further strengthened by the fact that Apple's hardware is expensive, and people targeting spenders will still (and, imho, always will) do iOS first (and sometimes only). Fred Wilson's famous android-first-because-it-has-the-most-marketshare advice only makes sense if you're a Facebook or a WhatsApp and raw triple-digit millions of users matter to you. If you're e.g. Uber, you don't give two fucks about four fucks for the people buying the inevitable $39 Android tablets of the future. _Which_ users matter a lot more to the vast majority of app devs than _how many_ users. That said, I think Apple will eventually be found to retain _at least_ 25% of the final size of the market— and the top 25% at that. |
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I would argue that Apple will lose upwards of half that position in the next two years. China alone will hammer them on market share, as Android will completely dominate the domestic Chinese market via cheap smart phones (particularly as the Chinese are heavily promoting their own vendors).
I think it'll be 80% to 85% Android, 8% to 12% iOS, with most of the remaining going to Windows and Blackberry (if Blackberry survives).
The history of technology markets consolidating toward a single standard (usually in the 65% to 85% market share range), leads me to believe that given the scale + momentum + competitive advantages that Android has, it's likely to creep toward that 80% quasi-monopoly line, and very soon.