[adventured]

Most of the estimates I've seen peg current global Android market share at 68% to 73%, with iOS at 20%x.

I would argue that Apple will lose upwards of half that position in the next two years. China alone will hammer them on market share, as Android will completely dominate the domestic Chinese market via cheap smart phones (particularly as the Chinese are heavily promoting their own vendors).

I think it'll be 80% to 85% Android, 8% to 12% iOS, with most of the remaining going to Windows and Blackberry (if Blackberry survives).

The history of technology markets consolidating toward a single standard (usually in the 65% to 85% market share range), leads me to believe that given the scale + momentum + competitive advantages that Android has, it's likely to creep toward that 80% quasi-monopoly line, and very soon.

[seanmcdirmid]

Like I said in a previous post, the Apple store in Sanlitun Village (Beijing) keeps doing $1m+ sales a day, iPhones keep becoming more ubiquitous here, not less, and Android headsets are seen as a good choice...for farmers who can't afford iPhones. Ya, XiaoMi is great...if you can't afford an iPhone. Those officials would love to push domestic vendors, except they are too busy buying iPhones for themselves and their family.

China will eventually overtake the US as Apple's largest market, everyone knows this; Cook admitted it, and it wasn't controversial when he said it.