[lennydizzy]

As a Chinese, I would say the Chinese government is worried about 'Arab Spring', but that's not why they attacked NYT this time. The 'Great firewall' was built to prevent any uprising similar to 'Arab spring' from being started.

[ced]

How likely do you think a Chinese spring would be?

It's unfortunate that we don't get more foreign perspective on HN and Reddit - I hope you comment more.

[noname123]

I'm first generation Chinese-American, IMO not going to happen. Chinese people are concerned about money first and foremost followed by their family.

Also I'd like to challenge the implied perspective that somehow American democracy is somehow superior. In fact the very notion of fighting for a political cause is a Western idea, Chinese people are less naive than Americans in a sense because everyone in China knows that the nightly newscast (Xinwen Lianbo) is all BS whereas people in America listen and cling onto their political religion (Rachael Maddow/Amy Goodman/Colbert Report for Left Coast Yuppies, Glenn Beck for Tea Partiers and CNN for mainstream suburbanites).

The Chinese idea is that politics has really less to do with personal life as they are the waves of a ocean to a surfer; they come and go, rather than try to bend the all-powerful, insurmountable, it's best to yield to the ocean, surf in its direction. People humbly refer themselves as One of the Hundred Names (Lao Bai Xin), separate from the emperors or now CPC in their celestial palace.

Not fighting for one's identity and civil representation may seem apathetic and offensive to American sensibilities. But for the Chinese, one would rather improve one's lot by focusing on getting into a better school, a good employer and finding a good partner for marriage and taking care parents than getting a piece of legislation changed advertising that you could potentially live a better life.

I'm sure supporters of American-style democracy will point to the civil rights movement, the New Deal, child labor laws as democracy-in-action that changed working class people's lives for the better if people stick together and march onto Washington. But the Chinese perspective sees revolutions and protests as natural occurrences of the masses dissatisfaction, like waves in an ocean, they will form when the conditions are right (mass protests on polluting factories, mass Weibo posts on air quality and expose on certain official's corruption). Even Tianmen incident was a protest made by the falling dominoes of communism and a mass of disaffected students and workers with varying and complex mix of agenda's - and to compare with the Westerner's idea of a rallying cry (Sandy Hook, Upton Sinclair's The Jungle, Rosa Parks) with a singular hero or matyr, it's a contrast of Taoist Wu-Wei and Confucian idea of communal harmony to American individualism and manifest destiny.

[mc32]

I think you're overstating your case. I would say the "228 incident" [1] would counter your assertion that rallying cries (political causes) are anathema or that people don't care about authoritarianism as they might seek over ways to overcome the difficulties presented by such (following your waves in the ocean).

I think the healthy political involvement (even antagonistic approach) to politics in, practically Chinese, Taiwan speaks to how, essentially, Chinese people did "march on Washington" to produce change and shake off authoritarianism and did have a singular genesis with Lin, Jiang-mai and the Tienma Teahouse incident.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/228_Incident

[ttflee]

The political ecology of Taiwan when 228 incident occurred is largely different than the current (smoggy and turbid) one in Mainland China. And in the late 1980s, KMT regime lost its vitality(, but still holds some kinda moral integrity, )as the older generation who fled from the Mainland to Taiwan around late 1940s died out or retired, allowing a transformation of the political session there. However, in Mainland China, the power of the ruling party still tightly grasp the controls and the grassroots are more suppressed and less clearly divided than those in Taiwan at the time.

I'm not trying to generalize that a revolution would not happen here in China but changes in near future is highly unlikely, except that the economy of China would collapse or the ruling party itself would be split by inner struggles.

[mc32]

One of my implied points was that democracy is not 'foreign' and uninteresting to the Chinese, as implied by the OP. Prior to Mao's consolidating power, there were lots of CN intellectuals who were very excited about the prospects for CN and democracy. Song, Jiaoren was one such enthusiast of democracy who was assassinated prior to assuming CN Premiership[1]

It reminded me somewhat of the Japanese justification for protecting domestic ski manufacturers from EU mfgs: "Japanese snow is different".

[1]http://www.economist.com/news/christmas/21568587-shot-killed...

[gbog]

> It's unfortunate that we don't get more foreign perspective on HN and Reddit.

Agree. But you should be aware that culturally different point of views and requests to avoid US-centrism on HN are often downvoted. I have experienced it myself. I do not care that much except that I fear other potential contributors may feel it as an injunction to "shut up".

For exmple, I detected that many of my colleagues (in an It company) read HN very regularly, but I am under the impression that they would not try to comment or would be repelled by downvotes.

[lallysingh]

What? Why? I happily wish for the day that the Great Firewall gets shut off, but in my book, the Chinese Government has been fantastically successful.

The sheer number of people brought out of poverty in the last few decades is mind-boggling. In 1981, 85%[1] of China's population (that's 850 million people[3]) lived on < $1.25 a day. In 2005, that was 16% (200 million people)! The USA is at 16%[2].

I'm confident that we'll eventually see reform in China. It'll take a few decades. People are still "high" on growth. Once the growth slows down, people will start taking a more critical eye on their government, and change will occur. I think those changes will be occur gradually and peacefully.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_Peoples_Republic... [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States [3] http://www.chinability.com/Population.htm

[jasonkester]

It might be worth taking a quick glance at those articles again to make sure you're making a meaningful comparison.

The US poverty figures you quote are for an income of $23k/yr, or ~$11/hr. In that chart you quote for China, you notice that even the 71% mark only gets you up to $5/day (so $0.60/hr).

[lallysingh]

Frack me. Good point!

Edit: thinking about it. Isn't the poverty line relative to the cost of living? It may take a lot less money to feed and clothe a family in China than in the US.

[usaar333]

Correct. The number of people living in the US under the UN definition of poverty is ~0

[ttflee]

In one of my visions, the Internet freedom would deteriorate after some 'Spring', as the security deteriorated in Egypt in the past years. And the next one taking the power would only control the firewall more tightly.

[ced]

I didn't ask the question rhetorically. I agree with you, but it's nice to get different perspectives as well.

[Jack000]

not op but I would say almost nil. The "Arab Spring" occurred in already unstable regimes, which China is not. There is also a massive difference in scale with regard to the amount of power that must change hands for something even close to occur - a much higher activation energy.

I think the best hope for China is a gradual transition to democratic reform as the old guard passes on. It's likely though that nepotism will bridge the generation gap.