[Jack000]

not op but I would say almost nil. The "Arab Spring" occurred in already unstable regimes, which China is not. There is also a massive difference in scale with regard to the amount of power that must change hands for something even close to occur - a much higher activation energy.

I think the best hope for China is a gradual transition to democratic reform as the old guard passes on. It's likely though that nepotism will bridge the generation gap.