[tmchow]

Some interesting points made in the article, most prominently the argument that the low price point of Win7 netbooks changing consumer expectations of how much a PC should be and what the quality is.

However, I don't agree that PC prices have to come down to make Windows 8 a success. I believe the main reason why Win8 PC sales are low is because we haven't seen very many touch based laptops at all. Take a look for yourself and see if you can find one you'd buy ignoring whether you like win8 or not.

There are only 3 currently available touch laptops a sane person would consider:

- Lenovo Yoga - Acer S7 - Lenovo X1 carbon touch - Asus UX31a Touch

So despite the typical advantage Windows has had in the past with a Tom of breadth in make and models, its just not the case at this point with Win8 touch laptops.

If OEMs pump out more high quality touch laptops, we will see sales spike. Prices don't even have to come down.

[mtgx]

All of those machines are over $1,000. Looking at the history of Windows PC's vs Macs, Apple has always dominated that $1,000+ market. Microsoft has no chance with devices at over $1,000, and they have increasingly smaller chance at the $500-$999 market, too, because of the iPad and also Android devices. This is not just a theory. It's happening right now, and these holiday sales show it, too.

I think Microsoft only has a short window of opportunity in the sub $500 market, but that one is rapidly being eaten by Android, and the fact that (regular) Windows licenses cost $100-$200, and that Windows machines need expensive Intel chips to run properly (especially for the more "bloated" x86 programs), their future isn't looking too good there either.

PC sales "growth" is not going to come back, and so far Windows hasn't made a big impact in the touchscreen market (or so called "post-PC" market) yet, so I expect Microsoft's Windows business to be on a decline from now on, and the decline might happen faster than anyone is expecting. The same goes for Intel (Otellini was smart to get out now).

EDIT: @kenjackson - I can't reply to you it seems, but Apple owning the over $1,000 market is not that new. This is from 2009:

http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-...

It also seems the average price of Windows notebooks used to be $700 back then. Now it's under $500. I don't think the average price for Windows notebooks is going to go back up again.

[kenjackson]

Apple dominating the $1000+ market is a relatively new phenomenon. EDIT: By relatively new I meant the past decade. All my laptops in the through about 2002 were $1200 Windows laptops. I suspect the crossover happened probably around 2005.

This article explains the Surface pricing. MS wants the ASP that Apple gets. Unfortunately there's no way to get ppl to walk into a best buy and spend $1300 on a Lenovo Carbon, when there is a $400 ASUS right next to it (but isn't touch screen).

The genius of the Apple Store (and the Apple model in general) is that there is no low end laptop to compete against their line.

[tmchow]

All those PCs are over $1000 and none of them are hands down winners (although the uX31a Touch has been reviewed very well). I believe many PC buyers would pay a premium for a windows PC if it deserved it. IOW, not all PC buyers are looking for cheap, sub $500, PCs.

Take me for example. I have an iPhone and an iPad but have all Windows PCs. I just prefer them. I can afford a MacBook but don't want one. I'd happily pay $1400+ for an amazing win8 touch laptop. But since none exist yet, I'm ok the sidelines waiting.