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by itkovian_ 5 days ago
I just don’t understand this view. This is the most significant technology ever developed. The uncertainty currently is whether it 1) has massive impact, completely altering society and the making world significantly significantly better or 2) if we go into a fast takeoff/rsi loop. Personally I’ve always been highly skeptical of the later, but that seems like a genuine possibility now. It’s not ‘are we going to be able to generate 10% roic on compute’ the answer to that is yes.
2 comments
piguin 5 days ago
It will obviously be a large part of the economy like online shopping is today. The companies that built up a lot of debt to be brand names in online shopping primarily went bankrupt because new companies had no debt (and perhaps no negative sentiment from early customer experiences.)
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itkovian_ 5 days ago
the difference is all the current capex is going to durable, hard to get physical assets + things like PPAs. In your online shopping analogy, the hyperscalars are acting like Amazon in 1998
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piguin 5 days ago
What destroyed hardware manufacturers after the first bubble burst was all the old but overpowered server hardware ending up in resale after bankruptcies. Hard to get hardware is a bad investment that is also potentially obsolete after new optimizations make the next generation much more efficient. The companies that think their individual optimizations are going to outpace industry wide optimization are delusional, historically speaking.
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Imustaskforhelp 5 days ago
> the hyperscalars are acting like Amazon in 1998

I hope you remember furniture.com, pets.com, webvan.com, kozmo.com and many others.

Amazon.com (during 1998) in some sense is the exception, not the norm from the bloodbath in stock markets during the dot com bubble.

(I highly recommend the book How the internet happened for more knowledge about things before, during and after the dot com bubble.)

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Laurel1234 5 days ago
> It’s not ‘are we going to be able to generate 10% roic on compute’ the answer to that is yes.

Based on what? No AI company has ever made a cent in profit (exept for Nvidia lmao).

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duncangh 5 days ago
Yeah but space data center Econs are going to revolutionize the tulip marketplace
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