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by pfdietz
11 days ago
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> Current costs to launch a kg to orbit are something like $2,000-$6,000. This is false. Launch on Falcon 9 is under $1K/kg. Moreover, current launch costs are just a milestone toward future launch costs, which promise to me much lower. Ultimately launch will be a few times the cost of propellant (just like air travel), so $10/kg is a reasonable expectation. > vaporizing in the atmosphere How does this happen? Launch explosion? That doesn't vaporize an armored container. Entry from near-orbital speed? Also survivable passively. The result of an accident will be tracking down the armored canister(s), cleaning up any local impact fragments, and prepared the stuff for another launch. The armored canister doesn't have to be sent beyond LEO, so it could be reused, and doesn't impose a mass penalty on that beyond-LEO transport system. |
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Every number I find is ~$2,700 or so per kg. I'd be interested to see your data.
>$10/kg is a reasonable expectation.
Citation needed. The tyranny of the rocket equation means you need about 95kg of propellant for every kg of payload. To be clear, assuming it costs $0 to build a rocket, you're going to need to find propellant for under 10c/kg.
Or flip it around. Falcon 9 can lift 18,400kg. You're suggesting therefore that the gross income for spacex will be $184K per launch at $10/kg. It currently costs them about $15-20M per launch. They have to reduce their cost 100x to make a profit with your numbers. From $15,000,000 to ~$150,000. That seems... unlikely.
> Entry from near-orbital speed? Also survivable passively.
... To be clear, you're suggesting that a rocket in a bad state (engine failure / tumbling) is able to survive a re-entry at 17,500mph? Also -- your "armored canister". How many kg of armor per kg of payload? 50:50?