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by hex4def6 5 days ago
> This is false. Launch on Falcon 9 is under $1K/kg.

Every number I find is ~$2,700 or so per kg. I'd be interested to see your data.

>$10/kg is a reasonable expectation.

Citation needed. The tyranny of the rocket equation means you need about 95kg of propellant for every kg of payload. To be clear, assuming it costs $0 to build a rocket, you're going to need to find propellant for under 10c/kg.

Or flip it around. Falcon 9 can lift 18,400kg. You're suggesting therefore that the gross income for spacex will be $184K per launch at $10/kg. It currently costs them about $15-20M per launch. They have to reduce their cost 100x to make a profit with your numbers. From $15,000,000 to ~$150,000. That seems... unlikely.

> Entry from near-orbital speed? Also survivable passively.

... To be clear, you're suggesting that a rocket in a bad state (engine failure / tumbling) is able to survive a re-entry at 17,500mph? Also -- your "armored canister". How many kg of armor per kg of payload? 50:50?