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by seanmcdirmid 11 days ago
The math has been constant, if you were reading reports saying it would hit the breaking point in the 90s or 2000s, you are either misremembering, confusing it with something else, or willfully distorting facts. Anyways, if you make claims like that you should take advantage of internet linking features and just provide your evidence directly vs a “I remember reading” anecdote.

There was a point where social security went from surplus to deficit in 2010. That wasn’t insolvency though since the federal government owed them for the previous surpluses they borrowed. 2033 is when the federal government no longer has to pay back money to SS and it is truly insolvent.
2 comments
rpdillon 11 days ago
Exactly this. The date has been very consistent for many years, and the math checks out. 2033 unless something significant changes.
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seanmcdirmid 11 days ago
The date used to be later but COVID drove it forward a bit since they got rid of contributions for some people for a couple of years I think? Generous cost of living increases have also caused the date to creep forward, but I don’t think it has ever moved backward.
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Schiendelman 10 days ago
Maybe you are misremembering. The Greenspan Commission was the last time we significantly amended social security to avoid these problems, and it was in the 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenspan_Commission
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seanmcdirmid 10 days ago
Greenspan commission wasn’t a prediction. They used a previous pay as you go model that was simply broke at that time (and had been for awhile$, leading to the current pay for the future model. They then made predictions that the new system would be solvent way past 2033.
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Schiendelman 10 days ago
See my more complete history here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48961349

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