[kurthr]

I'm a bit skeptical of the token cost/ROI for all models, but sunk costs are sunk.

It has the feel of self-improving super-intelligence or bust to me. If you get that, the frontier model(s) run away with a faster exponential. It's a bit like semi with Moore's Law with silicon, GaAs could never catch up. If you don't get it, the fast followers crush the high investment and there's no moat. Not like they can enforce copyright!

[margalabargala]

There's a world where frontier models run away with a faster exponential and still go bust due to being outcompeted on efficiency.

There's a point past which "intelligence" stops mattering as much, and IMO we're already there.

Consider which would be more useful (and profitable for its creator): a model that is 3x/5x/10x as "intelligent" as Mythos, for whatever your favorite yardstick of intelligence is? Or a model that is as "intelligent" as Opus 4.5, but can run at reasonable speed on a typical consumer laptop/cell phone?

[conception]

If the former can develop the latter, then the former.

[cyanydeez]

not really a feeling; if you listen to ed zitron and strip out the vitriol, you still get the fact that the VCs are looking for some 5 trillion dollars in 5 years.

The onlly way that happens is if America turns into zimbawe.

[nekusar]

Who says it hasn't already?

I've driven in a LOT of the USA. Sure Chicago, NYC, DC, LA, LV... They're all built up and feel modern.

Try driving anywhere in the Midwest outside of the big cities. Dilapidated carcas buildings everywhere. Urban and rural blight. Only jobs are low paying service work. Its bleak. Like, really bad poverty as a disease bleak.

And its crazy watching it too. They're ignorant (involuntatily), poor, and trapped. And democrats only seem to care about special interest of the week, so these areas vote republican.

I don't have a solution btw. Just something I've seen growing in the last 25 years. And its getting worse, not better.

[tempest_]

As a Canadian driving through Michigan/Ohio/Upstate New York and places look run down and like they peaked in the 60s-80s and its been down hill since.

When I was younger and it was a new thing it was quite a shock since American media obviously doesnt portray it that way. It is quite a contrast to even how the more run down parts of Canada look.

[weakfish]

At risk of greatly oversimplifying American politics, it's truly impressive how good Democrats are at shooting themselves in the foot.

That's why I personally believe Sanders and Mamdani have found so much success with the working class; they keep themselves separate from the Culture War slugfest that mainline Democrats either voluntarily engage in or let Republicans drag them into.

IMO the vast majority of those "culture war" issues (LGBT freedoms, etc) are incredibly important, but to the average poor rural American it feels incredibly distant from their day to day. I can't put my finger on it exactly but Democrats have a tendency to message on those issues in ways that are either counter-productive or get soundbit saying something moronic. So when Fox News and whatnot say that Democrats are prioritizing other groups over them and message on it day after day, it's not hard to see why that propaganda becomes effective.

That's not to say that Sanders/Mamdani/etc don't message on social issues, they obviously do, but they are somehow effective at not alienating voters who may otherwise latch onto that in a negative way.

I don't have a good solution. Just my observations.

[mlrtime]

" can't put my finger on it exactly but Democrats have a tendency to message on those issues in ways that are either counter-productive or get soundbit saying something moronic."

There are people that have explained this a lot better than I have, but here is my poor paraphrasing to answer your question.

Democrats are a bit less centrally controlled and you have a mix of Progressives/Greens etc.. that would prefer their own party but the closest thing they have is the DNC. Some of these ideas are not universally shared even in the Democratic party but they try to include them all.

Compare this with the GOP, there are also disagreements but until recently has a pretty unifiying message. This makes it easier to rally a base.

I could be off, and stating incorrectly but this is how I see it.

[conception]

It’s very difficult to be for the people and also get hundreds of millions of dollars from wealthy donors. That is the democratic party’s plight.

[weakfish]

I'm not sure I understand what part of my post this is in reference to. I agree that the democratic party gets a _lot_ of money. Are you contrasting to something in my post, or agreeing?

Appreciate clarification, I could also just be dumb today

[aleqs]

I think the point is that most of Democrats' supposed positions on the working class, climate, inequality etc. are purely performative. Their actual policies are 99% the same as Republicans and they essentially just as corrupt and beholden to the wealth class.

[cyanydeez]

>Who says it hasn't already?

Great.