I would assume the opposite is true — with an open-weight Fable-class model, doesn't demand for GPUs go up? Plenty of companies can now look at what Anthropic is offering — high per token costs for a very intelligent model — and do the math, and at some point it makes sense to just rent the GPU yourself and run Kimi on it if you get similar intelligence without paying Anthropic's margins (albeit with high upfront capital cost).
This would drive down Anthropic's margins, but drive up demand for datacenter and GPU capacity. It's not that people would be using fewer GPUs, they'd just shift demand from high priced token vendors to direct GPU rental, which benefits datacenter companies while hurting Anthropic.
The cost to run Kimi is the cost of the GPUs (+ overhead of hiring humans for now to manage it). Kimi K3 does not change the demand curve for LLMs, it only changes the possible suppliers — and they're all competing for the same supply-constrained resource, which is GPUs in datacenters. Regardless of who is serving the model, or how, they're going to need to rent or buy GPUs in datacenters. Hence: this is great for datacenters.
Oracle is fine, it's just that they can't really expect political decisions that hindered it to accquire TikTok which will be slated to be the biggest customer if the deal went through.
Now they are betting with Project Stargate but it also seems to be crumbling down.
But don't forget that they literally hold the biggest databases, both in commercial and open source, that is, Oracle Database and MySQL. Plus Oracle Java they literally controls at least 30% of the internet's software infrastructure.
And also with a good team of attorneies enforcing the licenses, they can squeeze so much money at the cost of morality.
Also recently they downgraded the always free OCI ARM instance from 4C24G to 2C12G without telling anyone.
New enterprise java licenses are going to milk enterprise just like broadcom is doing. New license deals makes you pay for employee total number (including contractors) instead of for users of oracle java.
Even boring, slow moving companies are well on their way to eradicate the last traces of oracle java. We kicked the last of that 2 years ago, despite having >3000 different systems across the globe. (We started circa 5 years ago).
They're drowning in debt and risk is increasing. If these US models don't keep holding up their valuation will tank further and some will recall the loans or ask for different terms.
This would drive down Anthropic's margins, but drive up demand for datacenter and GPU capacity. It's not that people would be using fewer GPUs, they'd just shift demand from high priced token vendors to direct GPU rental, which benefits datacenter companies while hurting Anthropic.