It is statistically likely that one will happen somewhere in the country , but it is also statically unlikely that it will happen at the one you are at.
The odds a child will be killed by an armed assailant at a school in the USA are about 1 in 5 million per year, and if you narrow down to mass shootings at schools, that drops to about 1 in 10 million.
Between 2013 and 2022, a total of 77 students in grades K-12 have been killed in 11 school mass shootings, in a country with 50 million school children.
A child in America is about 500-600x more likely to die in a car accident than a school shooting.
A child in America is about 90-120x more likely to die from a pedestrian fatality than a school shooting.
A child in America is 70-90x more likely to die from choking than a school shooting.
A child in America is 50-60x more likely to die from drowning than a school shooting.
A child in America is 40-55x more likely to die in a fire or from smoke than a school shooting.
A child in America is 10-15x more likely to die in a bicycle accident not involving a motor vehicle than from a school shooting.
Comparable risks to dying in a school shooting include a fatal sting from a bee or wasp, (about twice a likely), or dying from being struck by lightning (about half as likely).
School shootings, while tragic, do not pose nearly as much of a statistical threat as you think they do, even if they still pose more than they ought to.
Sure, but almost never from a school shooting - usually from a car accident. That is one place where I'll be the first to acknowledge America isn't doing great on with regards to child safety.
Extremely rarely from a gun. And even when it is from a gun, it's not your kid dying from a gun, it's hundreds to thousands of "kids" (young teenagers) in places like Detroit and Chicago who have chosen an early career in armed carjacking and gang warfare, that skew the statistics for the entire nation.
If you remove shootings committed by African Americans (which are overwhelmingly against other African Americans), America's gun violence rate per capita drops below that of Canada, below the Czech Republic, close to the EU average. See: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7242a4.htm
Gun violence is something that the vast majority of Americans will never personally witness or experience, and will never even know anyone who has personally witnessed or experienced it.