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by anonym29 13 days ago
The odds a child will be killed by an armed assailant at a school in the USA are about 1 in 5 million per year, and if you narrow down to mass shootings at schools, that drops to about 1 in 10 million.

Between 2013 and 2022, a total of 77 students in grades K-12 have been killed in 11 school mass shootings, in a country with 50 million school children.

A child in America is about 500-600x more likely to die in a car accident than a school shooting.

A child in America is about 90-120x more likely to die from a pedestrian fatality than a school shooting.

A child in America is 70-90x more likely to die from choking than a school shooting.

A child in America is 50-60x more likely to die from drowning than a school shooting.

A child in America is 40-55x more likely to die in a fire or from smoke than a school shooting.

A child in America is 10-15x more likely to die in a bicycle accident not involving a motor vehicle than from a school shooting.

Comparable risks to dying in a school shooting include a fatal sting from a bee or wasp, (about twice a likely), or dying from being struck by lightning (about half as likely).

School shootings, while tragic, do not pose nearly as much of a statistical threat as you think they do, even if they still pose more than they ought to.

2 comments

A child in America is more likely to die than a child in Europe, Canada, Aus, NZ, ...
Sure, but almost never from a school shooting - usually from a car accident. That is one place where I'll be the first to acknowledge America isn't doing great on with regards to child safety.
Often from a gun
Extremely rarely from a gun. And even when it is from a gun, it's not your kid dying from a gun, it's hundreds to thousands of "kids" (young teenagers) in places like Detroit and Chicago who have chosen an early career in armed carjacking and gang warfare, that skew the statistics for the entire nation.

If you remove shootings committed by African Americans (which are overwhelmingly against other African Americans), America's gun violence rate per capita drops below that of Canada, below the Czech Republic, close to the EU average. See: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7242a4.htm

Gun violence is something that the vast majority of Americans will never personally witness or experience, and will never even know anyone who has personally witnessed or experienced it.

“in 2020, firearm-related injuries became the leading cause of death in that age group” [1-19]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761

Sure, but 5.5 per 100,000 is still extremely rare, and even that number obscures a highly bimodal distribution that largely tracks race. In Massachusetts, the rate drops to 0.7 per 100,000, while in Mississippi and Louisiana it's over 8 per 100,000.

From ages 1-19, that means the cumulative risk varies by about an order of magnitude even just at the state level before diving into specific cities or communities - there's cumulatively about a 1/750 chance of a kid dying from firearm violence in Louisiana or Mississippi from 1-19, or about a 1/7500 chance of a kid dying from firearm violence in Massachusetts.

The national figure might look scary (even though it's still a tiny, remote risk that most people never have to seriously worry about), but that's only because it blends a high-incidence minority with a low-incidence majority.

Looking at the national figure alone as representative of the whole country is like looking at the number of people who are imprisoned across Europe for being LGBT and being shocked at how much higher that figure is than in the USA - it's really all just Russia, a minority of Europe as a whole, responsible for a majority of the mortifying criminalization. It's disingenuous to insinuate that Europe as a whole is anti-LGBT because of Russian criminalization, just as it's disingenuous to insinuate that America as a whole is a dangerous place filled with gun violence, largely because of one demographic subset that is itself concentrated across a few small areas.

Nobody was talking about those odds though.