I used to follow it closely and be in the industry, but it still seems like Japan is gonna be the last "mostly ICE cars" of the developed countries.
Which is a shame, because it has a perfect combination of short-range needs (I mean, look at kei-cars), tons of wonderful places to hang out while charging (toll-way rest areas are so good), rare sub-freezing temperatures in most of the country, mandatory vehicle inspections (which could collect great safety data as well as preventative maintenance), general love of new cars and brand loyalty, lack of political or individual divide of "big gas trucks are manly", mobile-power-station earthquake preparedness (a nice bonus), generally cooperative nation-wide infrastructure...
I guess we just have to hope the main automakers can hold on long enough for solid-state batteries and move faster than a snail's pace when it does.
EV sales have doubled in Japan in the first half of 2026. [1] This has been spurred by some pretty large subsidies:
> In January this year, the government raised the maximum subsidy for EVs by ¥400,000 to ¥1.3 million. While the maximum subsidy for minicar EVs remained unchanged at ¥580,000, many domestic models are receiving the full subsidy amount.
> One EV model benefiting from this subsidy system is Honda Motor Co.’s compact Super-ONE, launched in late May. Originally priced at about ¥3.39 million, including tax, it can be purchased for ¥2.09 million — on par with minicar EVs — when the subsidy is applied. Demand has been overwhelming, with some dealerships temporarily suspending acceptance of orders.
> The Tokyo metropolitan government raised its subsidy cap in July in response to rising crude oil prices caused by the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Models from Toyota, Honda and Nissan, in principle, can receive subsidies of ¥900,000 or more per vehicle.
If they keep up with these subsidies, I think we could see some pretty rapid adoption of EVs. Charging infrastructure still needs to improve, though.
PHEVs are also eligible for subsidies, with the price of PHEVs being comparable to the cost of a HEV after subsidies. I think this can also help to get people used to the idea of driving EVs and charging at home.
Solid-state batteries are facing production hell now, with lots of issues cropping up when tested at large-scale in real devices.
So they are not expected in meaningful quantities until the early 2030-s.
And the LFP chemistry has now advanced so much that solid-state batteries might not even matter anymore, except for some niche uses like aviation/drones.
We could have smaller transportation with combustion engines too, but the margins are lower and they cover fewer use cases, so marketing larger vehicles works really well.
Issues with home charging comes to mind, but I suspect it might have to do with gas station experience in Japan not being so miserable.
Phrases that are equivalent to "full tank every morning with no need for drives to gas pumps" basically don't appear on Japanese Internet. I just googled a bit for Model 3 user reviews in Japanese, and most mentioned items seem to be futuristic experience, various minor QoL and reliability issues like sensors and actuator issues, and disappointing chassis dynamics such as torsional rigidity and suspension designs. Few mention home charging and none as a positive. Fewer mention the CEO as a factor, whose eccentricity is still not widely reported in Japan - Trump/Musk derangement is not fun to watch and media tend to sanewash or simply skip over those.
Though, I think Tesla is also not doing that bad in Japan? I see pre-Highlander M3 and occasional MY Juniper on the road, about as often as Porsche(all models). It's slightly more common than Nissan Sakura, and definitely more common than Ferrari and BYD cars(all models).
> I suspect it might have to do with gas station experience in Japan not being so miserable
Maybe it's different in other parts of the country or maybe the fact that EVs are so expensive their owners have different price sensitivity but one of the main reasons I would want an EV here in Japan is the miserable gas station experience.
In my city, half the gas stations have rip-off prices, 10-20 yen/liter higher than the cheapest stations. Often they just show a blinking "888" as a price so you can't even tell before pulling up to the stall. I pay for a map app that shows gas station prices (and which parking lots are free). Sometimes they'll have decent prices if you get a cash prepaid card or some kind of membership. The cheapest stations are either a 10 minute detour or I have to stand in line for 10 minutes (the cheapest in town is so popular cars line up across an intersection, incredibly dangerous).
On the highway the prices are even worse, since you're a captive audience (all highways are tolled and getting off and on the highway will ding you since prices are based on segments)
First, I'll point out that EV sales in Japan have doubled in the first half of 2026 due to increased government subsidies which took effect in January. [1] This has greatly reduced the cost difference between EVs and gasoline cars, which I think was a major reason people weren't buying EVs. Things may be changing.
Toyota has also finally started to make compelling EVs with the bZ4X and bz4X Touring, which could help drive sales. There has definitely been a lack of good options among Japanese manufacturers.
But charging infrastructure still sucks, at least where I live.
Electricity is also quite expensive. I did the math on my PHEV - and even if I only charge overnight when electricity rates are lowest, I don't save very much over using gasoline.
Kei cars are really popular (about 38% of car sales) [4], and get about 21 km/l (50mpg). Gasoline is subsidized by the government and costs ¥170 per liter ($4 per gallon). The price to fill a 27 liter tank is ¥4,650 ($29). Kei cars are all around pretty affordable, and there isn't much to save in the way of operating costs by driving an EV.
Minivans are also really popular with families. If I look at a list of best-selling car models (excluding kei cars), 5 of the top 10 are Minivans. [3] The only EV minivan currently on sale in Japan is the Volkswagen ID Buzz, which starts at around ¥9M ($55k), and is out of reach of most Japanese families.
Another factor at least where I live is that 4WD models are pretty popular due to snow and mountains (it's a hard requirement for me). 4WD is available on most gasoline cars sold in Japan, and is a pretty inexpensive option. On EVs getting a car with 4WD requires stepping up to an expensive "performance" trim, if it's available at all. On EV kei cars like the Nissan Sakura or the Honda N-One E 4WD isn't even an option.
> Electricity is also quite expensive. I did the math on my PHEV - and even if I only charge overnight when electricity rates are lowest, I don't save very much over using gasoline
I'm curious how the math would work out with an all-denka plan. I work from home so I switched from an electric plan where during daylight solar hours my electricity drops to 13 yen/kWh
¥13/kWh is a very good rate. Does that include fuel adjustment and renewable energy surcharge?
My current overnight rate is about ¥21/kWh after factoring in those adjustments - so yes if I could charge at ¥13/kWh that would be a sigicant difference. I'm not aware of any providers that offer that rate in my region, though (electricity here tends to be more expensive than the national average).
I actually reran my calculations and it looks like running my car on electricity is about 40% less expensive per km than gasoline, which is better than I expected. While that's significant if I'm just looking at fuel costs, it's not that significant when I look at total cost of ownership. And I do expect electricity to have less of an advantage in winter, when waste heat from combustion can be used to heat the car.
I have a theory: Japanese car's have excellent reliability, their interiors and design are lacking. If every car in the world is an EV, which due to their relative simplicity tend to be reliable, what remaining unique selling points does eg a toyota have?
Honda and Toyota are still much better cars than most of the EVs on the market and their reliability is still very good and so is the price. In comparison to Ford, GM, Tesla, Volkswagen and some of the other European brands.
The Japanese made the right decision by not jumping on the EV bandwagon just to lose billions of dollars, very similar to Apple in comparison to their peers burning billions of dollars, chasing AI models. What is the point of going bankrupt burning Capex or decommissioning some parts of your industry like Germany.
Another example I could give is that over the years some tech people have kept harping on Sony and Nintendo in the gaming industry, on how they should follow Microsoft down the road of making no profit when it comes to games But lo and behold, they make a profit in that area.
One other footnote, China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan support, are very loyal to their local industries, i.e. car manufacturers and electronic industries. Which is one of the reasons why still Apple does well in Eastern Asia, because they are like neutral territory, the Japanese will buy Apple products, but won’t buy their nearest neighbors products, and same thing goes for China, Korea, and Taiwan when they have a choice, which is an interesting dynamic.
I'd still prefer a more reliable EV to a less reliable one. Not too many good options for a EV minivan in the US (I'll never buy a Chrysler product, and I don't really want a VW).
Japan (Panasonic) is important baterry cell manufacturer, but most battery cells are exported, not used for domestic EVs. For example Panasonic is supplying batteries for Tesla.
And one of the points that's a little more obvious living here: Japan is a remarkably car centric culture. Not quite to the extent of America, but in much of the country you really do need a car.
If anything the main exceptions to that are exactly the places tourists are most likely to go.
I disagree, I lived a year in a small town near Osaka far from any tourist attractions and never did I wish I had a car. Public transport was ubiquitous and walking infrastructure excellent. Lots of people on bikes. Roads were tiny so cars on them are tiny and driving slowly, making it feel safe to share the roads with them.
Maybe the most clear indication that Japan isn't a car centric culture was the complete lack of FREE parking space.
So, yes, the extreme pedestrian hostility that is sometimes normal in the US isn't around, and there's more likely to be a viable transit system. That's especially the case if you're in the outskirts of a major metropolitan area where there are going to be commuters into the core transit network.
Still, if I hop on an express train for an hour away from central Tokyo, every house has a car park and most significant stores have dedicated parking spaces, and I get a vibe of "suburbia with narrower streets". Heck, I get some of that even as close as Kawasaki or southern Tokyo once you're away from major train stations.
Which shows that you can have lots of cars without having a cars-only culture. Freedom of choice of the mode of transport, and pay for privilege vs externalizing the costs of cars.
Which seems strange since Toyota are the origins of JiT manufacturing. I wonder what made Japan go through a period of incredible innovation and then just decide "ok, that's enough".
It is curious - you would think they would love it? But they don't - is it simply the case of the Chinese beating them - stubbornness and pride? Or is there something more going on?
Toyota was seemingly decades ahead at one point with their hybrid cars; but now they have resigned to a defensive position compared to Tesla, Chinese automakers, even the European ones.
I remember BYD actually had to design models specifically tailored to the Japanese market (k-car)—their preferences are honestly so bizarre. I think a lot of this comes down to their national character. Once external momentum fades—like the industrial transfers from the US—they seem to lose the drive for technological innovation. They just cling to whatever they already have and refuse to adapt to global shifts.People in Japan are still using Yahoo and fax machines（not to mention their own bizarrely proprietary text editors,Hidemaru/SAKURA editor, to compare, in china, it's also vscode）.
Toyota is still digging its heels in on gas-powered cars, even though the fact that Tesla used Japanese batteries in its early days proves Japan was once ahead of the curve.but they always seem to retreat right back into their comfort zone after a brief flash of brilliance, watching the rest of the world race ahead while they continue living in the past.
> I remember BYD actually had to design models specifically tailored to the Japanese market (k-car)—their preferences are honestly so bizarre.
You say this in past tense, but BYD's kei car won't be released until later this month [1]. It remains to be seen how well it will sell. I think they are expected to sell maybe 5,000 units per year initially, but obviously they are looking to expand sales over time.
And what's wrong with kei cars? They are inexpensive to buy, fuel efficient, easy to park, inexpensive to maintain, are shockingly roomy inside, and have practical features like sliding doors. They aren't the fastest or most luxurious cars in the world - but as a tool for getting around they do their job very well.
The government also provides strong monetary incentives to drive kei cars in the form of lower taxes and inspection costs, which is another reason they are so popular. That's why the BYD Racco is kind of a big deal - they are the first non-Japanese manufacturer to design a car that complies with kei car standards. No other foreign manufacturers to date have felt it was worth the effort.
I think the point GP's trying to make is that Japanese market require everything to be specifically designed for it, despite that the opposite rarely being true. One related concept I've seen mentioned is "Japan takes executive summaries of things and follow its own (weird/bad) interpretation of it".
BYD so far is doing much worse in Japan compared to Tesla, despite them having standard lineup of an SUV, two sedans, and a compact. A part of the reason would be that there's no particular motivation for their customers to pick specifically a Chinese car, but it's also true that a lot of Kei cars are sold in Japan, and producing a ground-up Japan-specific product was the solution that BYD took, which, I suppose, seemed to be a bizarre decision to GP.
>They just cling to whatever they already have and refuse to adapt to global shifts.People in Japan are still using Yahoo and fax machines（not to mention their own bizarrely proprietary text editors,Hidemaru/SAKURA editor, to compare, in china, it's also vscode）.
James May suggests in his doco "The Peoples Car" that the US auto market was like this when Japan was recovering from WW2, giving them the edge. It wouldnt surprise me if after a few years of success that they also stagnate.
That's probably a good thing, the world needs appliance-like cars for markets where EV charging isn't there yet.
Meanwhile Toyota is #1, moving millions of units, something like half of them are electrified in most markets. A 2026 Camry, for $30k, gives the buyer a low-TCO, value retaining, 50mpg, 230hp appliance of a car. That's a rarity.
Toyota's first Prius (hybrid) came out in 1997 and Nissan's first Leaf (full electric) in 2010. Both Japanese, both ahead of the curve, now way behind it.
It is an interesting situation.
Anecdote: I have a 2014 Leaf, purchased a couple of years ago as the first foray into EVs. It's a great little car, perfect for the daily short trips for which we bought it. Use-case matters!
Aren’t all Teslas made in the US supplied with American made batteries? In partnership with Panasonic, for the Model 3, but still a Tesla factory in Nevada. And I think 4680s are all Tesla made, correct?
No, they are all 100% made by Panasonic, with Panasonic technology, in buildings that Panasonic master-leases from Tesla. The only thing Tesla has contributed is the shell and the sign outside. Panasonic developed the 4680 form factor at Tesla's request, by the way that program has been a major failure.
“Master-leases” is a factually incorrect claim. Tesla owns the entire Nevada site and all of the buildings. Panasonic is a tenant of Tesla, leasing some sections of floor space to operate their 2170 cell production lines, manufactured to Tesla's specification. This arrangement was formed before Tesla had meaningful battery cell manufacturing expertise of its own.
In the same building cluster, Tesla does in-house battery module production, battery pack production, Powerwall manufacturing, Megapack manufacturing, electric motor manufacturing, drive units, and other powertrain components.
Panasonic was not involved in the design of Tesla's 4680 cell format. Along with this new form factor, Tesla gambled with various novel manufacturing processes, which resulted in many delays. Except for the delays, the Tesla 4680 production ramp has not been a “major failure”. It's producing a large volume of cells going into real customer cars, in the order of tens of millions per annum, and in that respect it has been successful. It is not yet clear whether the various manufacturing innovations (e.g. dry process) will be as transformative as hoped.
Separately to Tesla's efforts, and in response to Tesla's plans, Panasonic also developed its own manufacturing process to produce 4680 cells with the aim of being a supplier to Tesla.
> No, they are all 100% made by Panasonic, with Panasonic technology, in buildings that Panasonic master-leases from Tesla
Gigafactory Nevada is jointly operated by Tesla and Panasonic [1]. That's in America. (No clue on the master lease bit. Would be curious for your source.)
Fun, somewhat related, fact. For a long time (not sure about now), the high-voltage connectors in Tesla were made by (but not labeled) Yazaki. Made in Japan.
But the QC tests to Yazaki's deisred level didn't exist yet, and Tesla did their own tests. And Tesla was maximizing it's "Made in the US" stance, which either goes by weight or components.
So Yazaki was secretly making unlabeled high-voltage connectors in Japan, selling them to Tesla, who could then test them themselves and claim falsely the source of production.
> Toyota is still digging its heels in on gas-powered cars, even though the fact that Tesla used Japanese batteries in its early days proves Japan was once ahead of the curve.but they always seem to retreat right back into their comfort zone after a brief flash of brilliance, watching the rest of the world race ahead while they continue living in the past.
Did Japan get behind on battery tech? Couldn't them make a priority to get an edge there too?
Which is a shame, because it has a perfect combination of short-range needs (I mean, look at kei-cars), tons of wonderful places to hang out while charging (toll-way rest areas are so good), rare sub-freezing temperatures in most of the country, mandatory vehicle inspections (which could collect great safety data as well as preventative maintenance), general love of new cars and brand loyalty, lack of political or individual divide of "big gas trucks are manly", mobile-power-station earthquake preparedness (a nice bonus), generally cooperative nation-wide infrastructure...
I guess we just have to hope the main automakers can hold on long enough for solid-state batteries and move faster than a snail's pace when it does.