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by lilerjee 20 days ago
No central idea, and somewhat chaotic

But the one argument is right:

> Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.

Details can kill AI, causing them useless or wrong directions.
1 comments
ericpauley 20 days ago
Am I missing something here? Bike tires are pretty much the easiest tires to change. You don’t even really need irons and it involves a few very basic steps.
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samtheprogram 20 days ago
That's the point, he chose something very easy to do to illustrate how out of touch he thinks they are. It's obviously not the case.
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TN1ck 20 days ago
But even that can be difficult at times. My roommate had once a racing bike with a tire so tight, we struggled immensely getting it on.

And even without such a difficult tire, imo most people would struggle if you’d ask them to change a tire of a bike, especially the back wheel.

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rmbyrro 20 days ago
And our robots still look far from capable of changing bike tires...
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ericpauley 20 days ago
That's not OP's contention though; it's that models are incapable of even surfacing sufficient information. This doesn't pass the smell test.

To wit, here is ChatGPT's "superintelligent" answer: https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6a52b4a322bc81919308ec864a0cc056

Seems like a perfectly cromulent description by which a beginner could probably change a tire, perhaps with a few follow-ups to understand what certain components are.

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jamilton 20 days ago
I read his contention as “the people who wrote AI 2040 are nerds who are so ungrounded from physical reality they wouldn’t even know how to change a bike tire if given instructions”. Which I think is also wrong but has a genuine criticism in it.
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pas 19 days ago
sure, they have strong bay area aura, but an ad hominem is not very useful criticism of the actual arguments for AI safety (and longtermism, and against x-risks in general).
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saturn8601 20 days ago
Might be premature to say that...Elon is essentially betting all of Tesla on the fact that a robot can change a bike tire soon, if he is wrong he might have to come up with some new BS to keep surviving, but maybe he is partially right and a robot ends up being able to change some bike tires sometimes.
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