[ericpauley]

Am I missing something here? Bike tires are pretty much the easiest tires to change. You don’t even really need irons and it involves a few very basic steps.

[samtheprogram]

That's the point, he chose something very easy to do to illustrate how out of touch he thinks they are. It's obviously not the case.

[TN1ck]

But even that can be difficult at times. My roommate had once a racing bike with a tire so tight, we struggled immensely getting it on.

And even without such a difficult tire, imo most people would struggle if you’d ask them to change a tire of a bike, especially the back wheel.

[rmbyrro]

And our robots still look far from capable of changing bike tires...

[ericpauley]

That's not OP's contention though; it's that models are incapable of even surfacing sufficient information. This doesn't pass the smell test.

To wit, here is ChatGPT's "superintelligent" answer: https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6a52b4a322bc81919308ec864a0cc056

Seems like a perfectly cromulent description by which a beginner could probably change a tire, perhaps with a few follow-ups to understand what certain components are.

[jamilton]

I read his contention as “the people who wrote AI 2040 are nerds who are so ungrounded from physical reality they wouldn’t even know how to change a bike tire if given instructions”. Which I think is also wrong but has a genuine criticism in it.

[pas]

sure, they have strong bay area aura, but an ad hominem is not very useful criticism of the actual arguments for AI safety (and longtermism, and against x-risks in general).

[saturn8601]

Might be premature to say that...Elon is essentially betting all of Tesla on the fact that a robot can change a bike tire soon, if he is wrong he might have to come up with some new BS to keep surviving, but maybe he is partially right and a robot ends up being able to change some bike tires sometimes.