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by steve_adams_86 18 days ago
Here along the BC Coast, the organization I work for has an expansive sensor network. Weather stations, CTDs, custom equipment in watersheds, research facilities with all kinds of equipment to monitor, and so on. There is no broadband or fiber on remote islands along the coast. We used to use satellite internet, and getting data off of our main hubs (everything is relayed to the hubs by radio) was very slow and precarious. Since starlink it's a breeze. We will finally be able to get video feeds off of some of the stations; a totally untenable concept before.
2 comments

Sure, and that's great, but this is an extremely small niche case right? No one is denying that there are some cases where Starlink is amazing, but niche products don't usually command a $1T value.
If you read the SpaceX IPO docs, the vast majority of their self-stated addressable market is AI enterprise SaaS tools.

I’m not joking.

And they claimed their TAM was 20% of world GDP!!!
Their IPO made me look up what TAM was, and TBH it looks like the kind of metric where you're allowed to draw the boundaries however you like.

To the extent that they're not actually wrong about that TAM:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_addressable_market#/medi...

Note that I am not claiming they'll get sales anywhere near to close to the TAM. It's not like Wikipedia's market value is even close to {peak price of Encyclopedia Britannica} * {number of people on the internet} even despite it no longer being generally contested which of Wikipedia and Britannica is now better.

I mean, it’s actually not that bad of a play at least here in AK.

There’s billions of dollars in monitoring and maintaining remote sites / handling remote connectivity, doing bespoke SaaS tools, etc. Like, literally high hundreds of millions or low billions.

Starlink is wonderful for many reasons.

It allows technical folk to live wherever they’d like as long as they’re working remotely.

The mobile applications, particularly in the case of airline aircraft, have also been compelling and worth a lot of money to SpaceX.

Starlink has also brought broadband Internet to a vast number of people that would not have had it otherwise. This will boost the worldwide economy by an enormous amount.

I don't think rurp was saying there is no market, just that there was no obvious realistic TAM worth 1.6 trillion (going by the amount given by the S-1). How many people living remotely in an area with no fibre do you really expect there to be?
In the future, nobody will have to work (thanks AI!) and we'll all be digital nomads roaming the earth living off of 0DTE option gainz and UBI. /s
The owner of starlink is planning to be the only remaining capitalist. UBI is not for the US, a return to indentured servitude is.
The nice thing about there only being one capitalist is that it’ll be easy for the rest of us to deal with him.
> It allows technical folk to live wherever they’d like as long as they’re working remotely.

Turns out a simple water cooler technology is enough. We are all back to office because of efficiency.

Starlink only has 10 Million customers, too expensive for most countries already.

Starlink brought internet to a lot of people who had it before already but made it easier for them.

Its still quite a interesting technology, given, but for the fact that he destroys potentially our atmosphere, has control over war critical tech, can do survailance and wants to send out A Lot MORE into our space, its a net negative for at least 7-8 BILLION people while 10 Millionen people benefit from it.

And they even increased the price just a few weeks back...

You’re misconstruing the situation. Only 10 million subscribers means a vast growth opportunity.

I think there’s easily potential for a billion subscribers eventually.

It’s a niche, yes, but there could be others like it. No idea about how the company should be valued. We pay them chump change for our services, but enough that with any scale it could be meaningful. And their reach is pretty incredible, so, there is a lot of potential there.
> There is no broadband or fiber on remote islands along the coast.

I have family on the USA side of the islands. Kenmore Air is subsidized, but the trees are so darn tall that at many homes, Starlink is not an option. (they like the trees and use directional microwave, which sucks for Zoom)

FWIW it may be tenable now as Starlink has gotten much better at tree/obstruction avoidance in the signal and will preemptively switch the satellite it's using when an obstruction is approaching. Id check again.
Can you use a pole.
Or tree mount if not [a] protected [species]
Douglas Firs are silly tall in the PNW.
Sounds like a similar setup to GAIA on Galiano Island in BC, described here: https://www.galianonet.org/about