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by root_axis 41 days ago
> Polymarket gives 32% chance the ban on Fable is lifted this month.

Totally meaningless.
1 comments
furyofantares 32 days ago
It's June 30 and the ban has been lifted, I'm gonna say Polymarket's 32% chance of the ban being lifted in June was far and away a better guess than bemoaning that non-Americans will never access an American model better than Opus 4.8.
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root_axis 29 days ago
Polymarket's 32% wasn't "a guess", it's just noise with zero connection to the actual likelihood of the event.
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