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by pseudosavant 46 days ago
Based on the disclosed financials by SpaceX, they have made $48B in revenue since 2023 with a cumulative loss of -$41.3B.

And yet, based on stock price and market cap, they are worth about as much as Microsoft. Microsoft generated $80B of revenue and $31B in profits...per quarter last year. SpaceX will never, ever, generate $124B+ in annual profits.
2 comments
kridsdale1 46 days ago
What all the SpaceX naysayers don’t understand is that they effectively have a monopoly on selling drugs to aliens. Think about it, man.
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panick21_ 46 days ago
Until the alians realize this and throw the drugs in the harbor, leading the a US vs alians war to open them up for free markets access. Not sure this can actually realize their ambition.
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burnerRhodov3 46 days ago
What about the compute deals? $3.1B a month for half their compute? Elon built $6B of rev in 122 days. What can he do now that he's got a $85B war chest of cash?
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panick21_ 46 days ago
Buying NVidia gear early and renting it out isn't exactly business model. Like what is their moat? While literally everybody is bidding up hardware?

The only way you can see this continue as a model if space based data-centers actually can beat everything land based. And that is very questionable.

> What can he do now that he's got a $85B war chest of cash?

Increase the profit of Micron and NVidia?

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burnerRhodov3 45 days ago
>Buying NVidia gear early

xAI was retardedly late to the party. When Elon Musk founded xAI in July 2023, competitors had already spent years buying up massive silicon footprints and locking down cloud partnerships.

OpenAI had a 3 year lead, anthropic 2.5 years, and google was building TPU's since 2015... what are you talking about?

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panick21_ 44 days ago
First, many more people then just them buy these things and have ramped up their spending over the last 2 years.

And others if they were earlier, the explosion and demand of investment increased exponentially over the last 2 years, as we can see in the profit margins of the memory companies for example.

My claim was not that they were the first ever, but that Musk mobilized a huge amount of resources fairly quickly in a time where prices were exploding and before many others.

Early enough that compared to now he got a ok price and he can rent it more expensive then he bought it.

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burnerRhodov3 44 days ago
He can do things and a scale and timeline that is impossible for other to achieve and why he can make so much money? I agree.
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panick21_ 43 days ago
I'm not saying its not a reasonable business, but we are not asking 'can it be a business', we are asking can it be one of the most insane companies in world history. The suppliers have realized whats going on and they are racking in insane profit.

That's why all the Musk fans have realized that they need to scream 'Terafab'. But that is a fanciful concept and unprecedented in history of semiconductors.

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sublimefire 45 days ago
They have quite short cancellation notices and there is a question why do you need to rent it if you are an ai company? How is it grok not running the world using that compute.. And possible cancellation will erase a large income stream, think when gpus get old or sooner when Google does not need it anymore.
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burnerRhodov3 45 days ago
>there is a question why do you need to rent it if you are an ai company

Uhhh... $3.1B a month for $20b in capex sound like the best investment ever?

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pm90 46 days ago
The compute deals are going to go the same way as all those data centers that openai said they would need to build.
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y2244 45 days ago
The compute deal is for their depreciating hardware.

Matter of time before its no longer considered good enough by the main players.

Anthropic are building their own Datacenters so it's a stop gap

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burnerRhodov3 45 days ago
an RTX 3090 or older Quadro/Tesla enterprise cards are still selling/ renting... 5 year depreciation is only for tax purposes.

Anthropic is not building their own datacenters... They are mainly giving equity for colocation with AWS. I cant find one example of them ground breaking on anything... Can you give me a source?

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y2244 44 days ago
They are building one in uk

https://www.themorningintelligence.uk/anthropic-lines-up-tee...

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burnerRhodov3 44 days ago
yeah, and power is not availabe at capacity until late 2029? They haven't even signed anything, the 'deal' is in principle and BP has been actively trying to challenge it because they want the same power for a hydrogen facility.

So, to circle back to my original point, Anthropic has not broken ground on actively building any datacenters.

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