[burnerRhodov3]

>Buying NVidia gear early

xAI was retardedly late to the party. When Elon Musk founded xAI in July 2023, competitors had already spent years buying up massive silicon footprints and locking down cloud partnerships.

OpenAI had a 3 year lead, anthropic 2.5 years, and google was building TPU's since 2015... what are you talking about?

[panick21_]

First, many more people then just them buy these things and have ramped up their spending over the last 2 years.

And others if they were earlier, the explosion and demand of investment increased exponentially over the last 2 years, as we can see in the profit margins of the memory companies for example.

My claim was not that they were the first ever, but that Musk mobilized a huge amount of resources fairly quickly in a time where prices were exploding and before many others.

Early enough that compared to now he got a ok price and he can rent it more expensive then he bought it.

[burnerRhodov3]

He can do things and a scale and timeline that is impossible for other to achieve and why he can make so much money? I agree.

[panick21_]

I'm not saying its not a reasonable business, but we are not asking 'can it be a business', we are asking can it be one of the most insane companies in world history. The suppliers have realized whats going on and they are racking in insane profit.

That's why all the Musk fans have realized that they need to scream 'Terafab'. But that is a fanciful concept and unprecedented in history of semiconductors.

[burnerRhodov3]

>we are asking can it be one of the most insane companies in world history.

"So we went from, he just got lucky cause he got in early", to, "okay, he wasn't early he was just really fast", to, "the suppliers now see he's making a ton of money so they are going to raise prices" to, "terafab is impossible", QED?

You seem to misunderstand how tier 1 capital allocation actually works. You don't get fucked by your suppliers when you are adding $B's to their bottom line. XaI never "Stopped" purchasing GPU's in 2023. They signed multi-year long deals for as much hardware as nvidia, supermicro, dell and micron/skhynix can provide. They are the last to get squeezed. They never stopped adding on to Collosus 2, and they are actively building collosus 3.

Lastly, nothing is "Fanciful" about terafab. ASML makes the machines, Intel provides the cleanroom tech, and 14a pipeline... these are known variables that need to be tackled. Tesla and SpaceX are world renowned, high throughput manufacturing facilities with the ability to make lines more profitable than their competitors. .. no one is claiming he's building a TSMC-style silicon foundry. They are building a massive compute fabrication/clustering footprint. It is a formalized $55B industrial plan filed in Texas, backed by a hard partnerships.