[simianwords]

Wait, let’s stick to your bet of market correction.

“In 7 months I think their combined valuation would be higher than it is today.”

I think this captures everything you and I believe in. Do you want to bet against me?

Everything else is fluff.

My prediction is that you might walk back on this bet, so try come up with some other macro scenario you anticipate.

If you can’t come up with an easy testable macro metric for your bold claims on AI, I think it is a weak move.

I can make the bet more in your favour - the valuation of Anthropic + OpenAI will be greater than 20% of what it is today in 1 year.

This is much stronger than your claim and I think you should agree that this is not possible if your claims on AI productivity are true.

[oudlys]

I'm happy to make that bet. Just not for money. I don't gamble at all anywhere in my life.

But I'm happy to write something publicly like "Simianwords was right about this prediction and I was wrong". Also happy for you to suggest alternatives as well.

[simianwords]

Ok fair. In the event I’m wrong I can make a post in my anonymous blog that I was proved incorrect and I lost the bet. But I’m anonymous and a nobody so it doesn’t count for much but it’s all I can offer.

I’m not sure which bet we are talking about but let’s go for the stronger one and I’ll repeat it here:

7 months from now, combined valuation of OpenAI and Anthropic will be 10% higher than it is today inflation adjusted.

[oudlys]

Deal