[harrall]

Ford is probably going to do it.

They’re never the first but they consistently bring new major shifts in cars to the working class, without making some major compromises to the car (BYD) or being expensive (Tesla).

They:

- Brought affordable V8 engines to the working class

- Got rid of the V8 and brought much more fuel efficient turbocharged vehicles to the working class

- Made the first and a popular hybrid SUV, which is what Americans buy

- Brought the first affordable passenger aerodynamic cars to the working class

- Brought military grade aluminum bodies to a working class truck, massively increasing fuel economy

- They obviously invented the moving car assembly line and were the first to make cars affordable

Currently they’re working on an inexpensive electric car platform that borrows some of Tesla’s manufacturing ideas (but is way less complex because Tesla is actually unable to use it on their cars), switching to 48V, and trialing a new tree-based assembly line.

And it will be a fully repairable car unlike BYD’s which transfers all impacts to the battery frame, which is safe and saves a lot of money but makes the cars impossible to repair. (BYD started as a tech company so they tend to view things to be disposable, like smartphones.)

Ford watches all the other carmakers add new features and then figures out how to make it affordable and then they spend massive marketing campaigns to normalize it with regular people.

[z2]

I'm confused on the choice of Ford as a champion. Yes SUVs and trucks dominate in the US and that's Ford's focus, but I'm not sure what they learned from the commercial failures that were the Escape Hybrid and the F150 Lightning so that they will get it right and democratize EVs to the masses the second time. Or how their incremental innovations on ICE will translate to the "from the ground up" redesigns needed for a good EV. Or how the elimination of their more affordable cars in the name of chasing higher margin trucks will help bring things to the working class, as Ford's average sale price is now north of $55k, more expensive than the average Tesla.

Also, BYD started as a battery company, not a consumer tech company. Their choice of cell-to-body integration certainly makes repairs hard, but it adds to safety, range, weight, in addition to saving on cost. That looks to me like a very deliberate trade-off, not a sacrifice in the name of undercutting everyone. Tesla did it for their 4680 cell Model Y too.

[harrall]

I believe the Escape Hybrid actually sold really well and was in high demand, but they actually ran into supply chain issues.

The F-150 Lightning I think was too early for its time... an electric truck doesn't work unless it's mostly for leisure (e.g. Rivian). If you are towing or moving a lot of weight, your range drops a lot.

The Ford F-150 Lightning was just an experiment... not a real effort by Ford. If you look at how much money they spent on marketing aluminum bodies or turbocharged engines, it's a lot more because that's something they believed in.

The issue with high repair cost is that you actually end up paying for it via higher ownership costs... via insurance rates. So you might pay upfront very little but every time someone has their car repair or totaled, the insurance companies have to pay for the full cost of the car and this ends up being subsidized via insurance rates.