[iterance]

All things equal I would agree with you. However, all things are not equal.

SpaceX's target 2040 revenue of $4.3T. Let us assume that the US GDP grows at 3% p/a; in 2040 we may project a GDP of around $50T. Naturally, SpaceX would pushing 10% of the total US GDP.

Such a change is possible. It is not out of the question. Companies can and do reach that size, though obviously for mathematical reasons only a small number do. However, the claim that one will reach that size 14 years in advance beggars scrutiny. Simple credulity is not justified and it naturally follows that there will be a large number of people, even people with very bullish outlooks, who do not believe SpaceX will meet target. 30% growth p/a for 14 years would, historically, represent a fantastic rate of return and yet still it falls considerably short of target.

All the same, part of the promise to investors (whether one believes it or not) is that, even if SpaceX were to fall short of target, the long term revenue prospects are so explosive that one can't help but feel it's a good deal. (Is it? Time will tell.)

[ai-x]

Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint)

GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3%

Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?

[mlyle]

Outgrowing GDP for awhile— especially from a smaller base— is certainly possible. It is much less likely to do it from a long time from already large revenue.

[ai-x]

If you looked at Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft valuation around 2007 (before the crash), you'd asked the same question about the large base. But here we are.

[mlyle]

But none of any of those has grown at the pace from that large base necessary to justify this kind of valuation.

[andruby]

* GOOG's revenue grew from 16.6B in 2007 to 402B in 2025 for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20.4%

* AMZN: 11.7B to 717B = 24.8%

* AAPL: 24B to 416B = 18.6%

* MSFT: 49.7B to 245B = 10.2%

SpaceX is claiming they will grow by 41.5% !! That's double GOOG's growth and 4x MSFT's growth.

[mlyle]

And claim they will keep bigger margins, despite needing to do all kinds of infrastructure stuff.

[michaelmrose]

Also we crashed 2000-2002 2008-2009 2020. Although specific causes vary we haven't had 14 good years in a row so even the size of economy may be optimistic.

SpaceX will never be 10% based on rockets.

Rockets will get shit canned in the next crash because it's less important and spacex not having saved sufficiently will get wrecked.

Their 10% basically depends on them getting to super intelligent ai first despite others obviously being more successful.

An actually wildly successful projection would be asking us to imagine they weathered the next crash ok and were very successful at rockets after exiting AI.